Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Alef / Ironi Beit Shemesh vs Kfar Saba 1928

Prediction Audit: Ironi Beit Shemesh vs Kfar Saba 1928 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ironi Beit Shemesh Ironi Beit Shemesh
Sep 09, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.35
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 43%
Kfar Saba 1928 Kfar Saba 1928

The model missed the final outcome (Kfar Saba 1928 win 1–4).

The model had projected Ironi Beit Shemesh at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ironi Beit Shemesh Kfar Saba 1928 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kfar Saba 1928 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kfar Saba 1928 -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ironi Beit Shemesh 37.5% 31.8% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.3% +1.3 pp Aligned
Kfar Saba 1928 32.9% 39.9% -7.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kfar Saba 1928's win probability at 39.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kfar Saba 1928 win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kfar Saba 1928. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ironi Beit Shemesh; match finished Kfar Saba 1928

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ironi Beit Shemesh by 7.0 percentage points (44.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ironi Beit Shemesh 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Kfar Saba 1928 32.9%
    • xG · Ironi Beit Shemesh 1.35 — Kfar Saba 1928 1.25
  2. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ironi Beit Shemesh 2.80 · Draw 3.14 · Kfar Saba 1928 2.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Ironi Beit Shemesh 31.8% · Draw 28.3% · Kfar Saba 1928 39.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ironi Beit Shemesh 2.80 · Draw 3.14 · Kfar Saba 1928 2.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Ironi Beit Shemesh 31.8% · Draw 28.3% · Kfar Saba 1928 39.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kfar Saba 1928 win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6747156

Closing Odds 2.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kfar Saba 1928 win · Ironi Beit Shemesh 1–4 Kfar Saba 1928
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Alef
  • Fixture: Ironi Beit Shemesh vs Kfar Saba 1928
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Ironi Beit Shemesh 1.35 — Kfar Saba 1928 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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