The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Tamworth at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Tamworth Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 35.6% | 45.6% | -9.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.4% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Boston United | 34.7% | 29.0% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Tamworth's win probability at 45.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Tamworth. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Tamworth; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tamworth by 9.9 percentage points (45.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:17 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tamworth 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Boston United 34.7%
- xG · Tamworth 1.31 — Boston United 1.29
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tamworth 2.09 · Draw 3.75 · Boston United 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · Tamworth 45.6% · Draw 25.4% · Boston United 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:17 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tamworth 2.09 · Draw 3.75 · Boston United 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · Tamworth 45.6% · Draw 25.4% · Boston United 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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National League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Southend | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | AFC Hornchurch | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Sutton Utd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | AFC Fylde | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Yeovil Town | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Aldershot Town | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eastleigh | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Hartlepool | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Altrincham | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Forest Green | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 | Boston United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Worthing | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Halifax Town | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Barrow | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Tamworth | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 22 | Gateshead | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 23 | Woking | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 6 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 6 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | AFC Fylde | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 4 | Carlisle | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Southend | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Tamworth | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Worthing | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Kidderminster Harriers | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 6 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Halifax Town | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 13 | Boston United | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Barrow | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Scunthorpe | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Aldershot Town | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 17 | Sutton Utd | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 18 | Altrincham | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 19 | Forest Green | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 6 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 21 | Solihull Moors | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 1 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 23 | Gateshead | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 24 | Woking | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
