Prediction Audit: AFC Fylde vs Altrincham Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AFC Fylde

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.23

2 1.37

xG Accuracy: 79%

Altrincham

AI correctly predicted the Altrincham win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Altrincham Altrincham ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
AFC Fylde	31.9%	58.4%	-26.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	21.4%	+8.2 pp	Model Higher
Altrincham	38.5%	20.2%	+18.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates AFC Fylde's win probability at 58.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 26.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Altrincham win 1–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Altrincham higher (64.9% vs model 38.5%, 26.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Altrincham win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 19, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AFC Fylde 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Altrincham 38.5%
- xG · AFC Fylde 1.23 — Altrincham 1.37
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:43 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AFC Fylde 1.62 · Draw 4.42 · Altrincham 4.67
- Implied 1X2 · AFC Fylde 58.4% · Draw 21.4% · Altrincham 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · AFC Fylde 1.62 · Draw 4.42 · Altrincham 4.67
- Implied 1X2 · AFC Fylde 58.4% · Draw 21.4% · Altrincham 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Altrincham win · 1–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (26 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8684295

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Altrincham win · AFC Fylde 1–2 Altrincham

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: National League
Fixture: AFC Fylde vs Altrincham
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): AFC Fylde 1.23 — Altrincham 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.3% · Probability edge: +14.5 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	20
3	Kidderminster Harriers	9	5	3	1	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	16
7	Yeovil Town	9	4	3	2	15
8	Aldershot Town	9	4	3	2	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	14
13	FC Halifax Town	9	4	1	4	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13
15	Boston United	9	3	2	4	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	23	11	+12	23
2	Southend	9	23	12	+11	20
3	AFC Fylde	9	20	13	+7	17
4	Harrogate Town	9	20	16	+4	16
5	Yeovil Town	9	18	14	+4	15
6	Worthing	9	17	15	+2	14
7	Carlisle	9	16	14	+2	10
8	Tamworth	9	16	23	-7	8
9	FC Halifax Town	9	14	11	+3	13
10	Kidderminster Harriers	9	13	7	+6	18
11	Boston United	9	13	13	0	11
12	Forest Green	9	13	14	-1	13
13	Altrincham	9	12	15	-3	15
14	Eastleigh	9	11	10	+1	14
15	AFC Hornchurch	9	11	12	-1	15
16	Barrow	9	11	12	-1	9
17	Wealdstone	9	11	15	-4	8
18	Scunthorpe	9	11	15	-4	7
19	Aldershot Town	9	10	7	+3	15
20	Sutton Utd	9	10	10	0	16
21	Woking	9	10	12	-2	9
22	Solihull Moors	9	9	23	-14	4
23	Hartlepool	9	7	11	-4	9
24	Gateshead	9	6	20	-14	4