Prediction Audit: Tamworth vs Wealdstone Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tamworth

Sep 19, 2026 - 11:30

2 1.34

1 1.26

xG Accuracy: 78%

Wealdstone

AI correctly predicted the Tamworth win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tamworth Tamworth ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Tamworth	37.1%	49.0%	-11.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	22.9%	+6.7 pp	Model Higher
Wealdstone	33.3%	28.1%	+5.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Tamworth's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tamworth win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tamworth than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tamworth higher (49.0% vs model 37.1%, 11.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tamworth win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tamworth 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Wealdstone 33.4%
- xG · Tamworth 1.34 — Wealdstone 1.26
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tamworth 1.94 · Draw 4.15 · Wealdstone 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · Tamworth 49.0% · Draw 22.9% · Wealdstone 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tamworth 1.94 · Draw 4.15 · Wealdstone 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · Tamworth 49.0% · Draw 22.9% · Wealdstone 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Tamworth win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8662194

Closing Odds 1.94

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tamworth win · Tamworth 2–1 Wealdstone

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: National League
Fixture: Tamworth vs Wealdstone
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Tamworth 1.34 — Wealdstone 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +14.6 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	20
3	Kidderminster Harriers	9	5	3	1	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	16
7	Yeovil Town	9	4	3	2	15
8	Aldershot Town	9	4	3	2	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	14
13	FC Halifax Town	9	4	1	4	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13
15	Boston United	9	3	2	4	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	9	23	11	+12	23
2	Southend	9	23	12	+11	20
3	AFC Fylde	9	20	13	+7	17
4	Harrogate Town	9	20	16	+4	16
5	Yeovil Town	9	18	14	+4	15
6	Worthing	9	17	15	+2	14
7	Carlisle	9	16	14	+2	10
8	Tamworth	9	16	23	-7	8
9	FC Halifax Town	9	14	11	+3	13
10	Kidderminster Harriers	9	13	7	+6	18
11	Boston United	9	13	13	0	11
12	Forest Green	9	13	14	-1	13
13	Altrincham	9	12	15	-3	15
14	Eastleigh	9	11	10	+1	14
15	AFC Hornchurch	9	11	12	-1	15
16	Barrow	9	11	12	-1	9
17	Wealdstone	9	11	15	-4	8
18	Scunthorpe	9	11	15	-4	7
19	Aldershot Town	9	10	7	+3	15
20	Sutton Utd	9	10	10	0	16
21	Woking	9	10	12	-2	9
22	Solihull Moors	9	9	23	-14	4
23	Hartlepool	9	7	11	-4	9
24	Gateshead	9	6	20	-14	4