Predictions / Football / England. National League / Solihull Moors vs AFC Fylde

Prediction Audit: Solihull Moors vs AFC Fylde Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Solihull Moors Solihull Moors
Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.39
3 1.21
xG Accuracy: 55%
AFC Fylde AFC Fylde

The model missed the final outcome (AFC Fylde win 1–3).

The model had projected Solihull Moors at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Solihull Moors AFC Fylde ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices AFC Fylde higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: AFC Fylde -10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Solihull Moors 39.5% 33.7% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.9% +4.6 pp Aligned
AFC Fylde 31.0% 41.4% -10.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates AFC Fylde's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was AFC Fylde win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about AFC Fylde than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Solihull Moors; match finished AFC Fylde

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Solihull Moors by 10.4 percentage points (49.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Solihull Moors 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · AFC Fylde 31.0%
    • xG · Solihull Moors 1.39 — AFC Fylde 1.21
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Solihull Moors 2.83 · Draw 3.82 · AFC Fylde 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Solihull Moors 33.7% · Draw 24.9% · AFC Fylde 41.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Solihull Moors 2.83 · Draw 3.82 · AFC Fylde 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Solihull Moors 33.7% · Draw 24.9% · AFC Fylde 41.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result AFC Fylde win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5399745

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AFC Fylde win · Solihull Moors 1–3 AFC Fylde
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Solihull Moors vs AFC Fylde
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Solihull Moors 1.39 — AFC Fylde 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 6 5 1 0 16
2 Harrogate Town 6 4 1 1 13
3 Southend 6 4 1 1 13
4 AFC Hornchurch 6 4 0 2 12
5 Sutton Utd 6 4 0 2 12
6 AFC Fylde 6 3 2 1 11
7 Yeovil Town 6 3 2 1 11
8 Kidderminster Harriers 6 3 2 1 11
9 Aldershot Town 6 3 2 1 11
10 Eastleigh 6 3 1 2 10
11 Hartlepool 6 3 0 3 9
12 Altrincham 6 3 0 3 9
13 Forest Green 6 3 0 3 9
14 Carlisle 6 2 2 2 8
15 Boston United 6 2 1 3 7
16 Worthing 6 2 1 3 7
17 FC Halifax Town 6 2 0 4 6
18 Barrow 6 1 2 3 5
19 Tamworth 6 1 2 3 5
20 Wealdstone 6 1 2 3 5
21 Scunthorpe 6 1 1 4 4
22 Gateshead 6 1 1 4 4
23 Woking 6 1 1 4 4
24 Solihull Moors 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 6 16 8 +8 16
2 Harrogate Town 6 15 9 +6 13
3 AFC Fylde 6 13 9 +4 11
4 Carlisle 6 13 10 +3 8
5 Southend 6 12 8 +4 13
6 Yeovil Town 6 12 8 +4 11
7 Tamworth 6 12 16 -4 5
8 Worthing 6 11 12 -1 7
9 Kidderminster Harriers 6 10 7 +3 11
10 AFC Hornchurch 6 10 8 +2 12
11 FC Halifax Town 6 9 10 -1 6
12 Eastleigh 6 8 7 +1 10
13 Boston United 6 8 8 0 7
14 Barrow 6 8 9 -1 5
15 Scunthorpe 6 8 12 -4 4
16 Aldershot Town 6 7 4 +3 11
17 Sutton Utd 6 7 6 +1 12
18 Altrincham 6 7 8 -1 9
19 Forest Green 6 7 10 -3 9
20 Wealdstone 6 7 11 -4 5
21 Solihull Moors 6 6 17 -11 1
22 Hartlepool 6 5 4 +1 9
23 Gateshead 6 5 9 -4 4
24 Woking 6 4 10 -6 4
National League England. National League Predictions