Forecast Assessment
Model breakdown risk
- Favourite
- FK Spartak Tambov Slight favourite
- Model probability
- 46.3%
- Market probability
- 79.6%
- Market agreement
- Very weak
- Validation
- Fail
Summary:
Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.
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Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Very weak
- Validation
- Fail
- Largest gap
- FK Spartak Tambov -33.3 pp
- Breadth
- 3/3
- Current market activity
- No meaningful directional movement yet.
The model and market differ by 33.3 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup — validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Spartak Tambov | 46.32% | 79.63% | -33.3 pp |
| Draw | 28.73% | 14.75% | +14.0 pp |
| Rotor-2 | 24.96% | 5.62% | +19.3 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Model Breakdown Risk
The model and market differ by 33.3 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup — validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.
- Extreme model-market divergence detected.
- Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
- Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
BTTS: EV Yes +4.4% · EV No -19.3%
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Model validation failed
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Validation Passed
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 1.13
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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