Forecast Assessment
Reliable forecast
- Favourite
- Atletico Goianiense Balanced match
- Model probability
- 44.2%
- Market probability
- 42.9%
- Market agreement
- Strong
- Validation
- Pass
Summary:
The model and market both lean Atletico Goianiense, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and CRB remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.
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Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Strong
- Validation
- Pass
- Largest gap
- Draw -1.8 pp
- Breadth
- 13/13
- Current market activity
- No meaningful directional movement yet.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
However, Atletico Goianiense has seen drift — odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.
Market activity is currently concentrated on Atletico Goianiense.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 44.22% | 42.87% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.75% | 29.51% | -1.8 pp |
| CRB | 28.03% | 27.63% | +0.4 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Final betting verdict
Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.
- No value on 1X2 (Atletico Goianiense vs. current odds)
- Possible value: Over 2.5 (+23.1% EV at best odds)
- Possible value: BTTS Yes (+11.2% EV at best odds)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Primary line identified (+1.0)
- Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
- Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
- Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
BTTS: EV Yes +11.2% · EV No -21.3%
Atletico Goianiense market context before kickoff
⚠️ Volatile market on Atletico Goianiense
- Odds move
- 2.20 → 2.20 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 13/13
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Validation Passed
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 3.16
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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