Predictions / Football / Estonia. Meistriliiga / Tammeka vs Vaprus

Tammeka vs Vaprus Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tammeka Tammeka
Jun 13, 2026 - 14:00
1.24
1.36
32% 30% 38%
Vaprus Vaprus

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Vaprus Balanced match
Model probability
38.0%
Market probability
31.2%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Vaprus, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Tammeka remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Tammeka -10.8 pp
Breadth
8/8
Current market activity
No meaningful directional movement yet.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tammeka than the current fair estimate.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tammeka.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Tammeka 32.39% 43.2% -10.8 pp
Draw 29.59% 25.63% +4.0 pp
Vaprus 38.01% 31.17% +6.8 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • No value on 1X2 (Vaprus vs. current odds)
  • Possible value: Under 2.5 (+25%+ EV at best odds)
  • Possible value: BTTS No (+18.6% EV at best odds)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Moderate conviction (6.5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
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Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)
Under 2.5 — Value
EV +25%+ Model 51.8%
Secondary (balanced value): BTTS No (EV +18.6%) — 45.6% Model
Lower EV than primary, but with higher model probability (more “stable” when shown).
Both Teams To Score Best value (+EV)
Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
EV Yes -16.8% · EV No +18.6%
Value lean: BTTS No
1X2 Poor value
Vaprus · Model probability 38.0%
Market consensus (3-way) 31.2%
Consensus-line EV: -1.2%
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.5%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 6.5 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -22.9% · EV Under +25%+ (7 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -16.8% · EV No +18.6%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Tammeka market context before kickoff

⚠️ Volatile market on Tammeka

Odds move
2.00 → 2.00 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
8/8
Steam score
30 (C)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.1
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Meistriliiga
  • Fixture: Tammeka vs Vaprus
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Tammeka 1.24 — Vaprus 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.5% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +25.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

June 12, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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