Forecast Assessment
Reliable forecast
- Favourite
- Talleres Remedios Balanced match
- Model probability
- 38.0%
- Market probability
- 39.8%
- Market agreement
- Strong
- Validation
- Pass
Summary:
The model and market both lean Talleres Remedios, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Dock Sud remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.
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Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Strong
- Validation
- Pass
- Largest gap
- Dock Sud +4.3 pp
- Breadth
- 9/9
- Current market activity
- No meaningful directional movement yet.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Dock Sud.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dock Sud | 32.39% | 28.05% | +4.3 pp |
| Draw | 29.59% | 32.15% | -2.6 pp |
| Talleres Remedios | 38.01% | 39.8% | -1.8 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Final betting verdict
Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.
- No value on 1X2 (Talleres Remedios vs. current odds)
- Possible value: Over 2.5 (+25%+ EV at best odds)
- Possible value: BTTS Yes (+25%+ EV at best odds)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Primary line identified (+1.0)
- Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
- Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
- Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
BTTS: EV Yes +25%+ · EV No -28.4%
Dock Sud market context before kickoff
⚠️ Volatile market on Dock Sud
- Odds move
- 3.25 → 3.25 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 9/9
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Validation Passed
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 3.25
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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