Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 / Ullern vs Heming

Prediction Audit: Ullern vs Heming Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ullern Ullern
Jul 25, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Heming Heming

AI correctly predicted the Heming win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Heming Heming ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Heming higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Heming -9.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ullern 34.5% 30.6% +3.9 pp Aligned
Draw 27.3% 21.7% +5.6 pp Model Higher
Heming 38.2% 47.7% -9.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Heming's win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.2%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Heming win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Heming. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Heming higher (47.7% vs model 38.2%, 9.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Heming win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ullern 34.5% · Draw 27.3% · Heming 38.2%
    • xG · Ullern 1.31 — Heming 1.29
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ullern 2.89 · Draw 4.07 · Heming 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Ullern 30.6% · Draw 21.7% · Heming 47.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ullern 2.89 · Draw 4.07 · Heming 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Ullern 30.6% · Draw 21.7% · Heming 47.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Heming win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 52/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453386

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Heming win · Ullern 1–3 Heming
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Norwegian 3rd Division Group 1
  • Fixture: Ullern vs Heming
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Ullern 1.31 — Heming 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 1 3. Division - Girone 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Asker 18 16 1 1 49
2 Gamle Oslo 19 13 1 5 40
3 Heming 20 12 3 5 39
4 Bærum 20 11 2 7 35
5 Frigg 19 9 5 5 32
6 Vålerenga II 20 10 1 9 31
7 IF Ready 19 8 6 5 30
8 Union Carl Berner 19 9 1 9 28
9 Nordstrand 20 6 2 12 20
10 Ullern 20 6 2 12 20
11 KFUM II 18 6 2 10 20
12 Lokomotiv Oslo 20 6 2 12 20
13 Konnerud 20 5 1 14 16
14 SF Grei 20 4 1 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Asker 18 68 24 +44 49
2 Gamle Oslo 19 66 35 +31 40
3 Bærum 20 61 37 +24 35
4 Heming 20 50 31 +19 39
5 Frigg 19 47 38 +9 32
6 IF Ready 19 46 37 +9 30
7 Vålerenga II 20 45 58 -13 31
8 Ullern 20 39 54 -15 20
9 KFUM II 18 38 53 -15 20
10 Nordstrand 20 36 47 -11 20
11 Lokomotiv Oslo 20 35 60 -25 20
12 SF Grei 20 33 67 -34 13
13 Union Carl Berner 19 29 28 +1 28
14 Konnerud 20 29 53 -24 16
3. Division - Girone 1 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 Predictions