Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 / IF Ready vs SF Grei

Prediction Audit: IF Ready vs SF Grei Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

IF Ready IF Ready
Sep 26, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
SF Grei SF Grei

The model missed the final outcome (SF Grei win 2–3).

The model had projected IF Ready at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 IF Ready SF Grei ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned IF Ready; match finished SF Grei

Market lesson

The full-time result was SF Grei win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · IF Ready 1.32 — SF Grei 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result SF Grei win · 2–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10079492

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SF Grei win · IF Ready 2–3 SF Grei
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 1
  • Fixture: IF Ready vs SF Grei
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): IF Ready 1.32 — SF Grei 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 1 3. Division - Girone 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Asker 20 18 1 1 55
2 Heming 21 13 3 5 42
3 Gamle Oslo 21 13 1 7 40
4 Bærum 21 11 2 8 35
5 Vålerenga II 21 11 1 9 34
6 IF Ready 21 9 6 6 33
7 Frigg 20 9 5 6 32
8 Union Carl Berner 20 10 1 9 31
9 KFUM II 20 7 2 11 23
10 Lokomotiv Oslo 21 7 2 12 23
11 Nordstrand 21 6 2 13 20
12 Ullern 21 6 2 13 20
13 Konnerud 21 5 1 15 16
14 SF Grei 21 5 1 15 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Asker 20 71 25 +46 55
2 Gamle Oslo 21 68 41 +27 40
3 Bærum 21 61 39 +22 35
4 Heming 21 53 31 +22 42
5 IF Ready 21 53 42 +11 33
6 Frigg 20 49 44 +5 32
7 Vålerenga II 21 47 58 -11 34
8 KFUM II 20 41 58 -17 23
9 Ullern 21 39 57 -18 20
10 Lokomotiv Oslo 21 39 61 -22 23
11 Nordstrand 21 36 48 -12 20
12 SF Grei 21 36 69 -33 16
13 Union Carl Berner 20 35 30 +5 31
14 Konnerud 21 29 54 -25 16
3. Division - Girone 1 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 1 Predictions