Forecast Assessment
Reliable forecast
- Favourite
- Cobh Ramblers Balanced match
- Model probability
- 36.1%
- Market probability
- 33.9%
- Market agreement
- Strong
- Validation
- Pass
Summary:
The model and market both lean Cobh Ramblers, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Longford Town remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.
Login to see the full betting verdict
Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings.
Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Strong
- Validation
- Pass
- Largest gap
- Longford Town -3.5 pp
- Breadth
- 12/12
- Current market activity
- No meaningful directional movement yet.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Longford Town.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longford Town | 34.24% | 37.77% | -3.5 pp |
| Draw | 29.65% | 28.38% | +1.3 pp |
| Cobh Ramblers | 36.11% | 33.85% | +2.3 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Final betting verdict
No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.
- No value on 1X2 (Cobh Ramblers vs. current odds)
- Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
- Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
BTTS: EV Yes -4.6% · EV No -4.5%
Longford Town market context before kickoff
⚠️ Volatile market on Longford Town
- Odds move
- 2.45 → 2.45 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 12/12
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.
Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Validation Passed
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 2.42
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Longford Town & Cobh Ramblers!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now