Predictions / World Cup 2026 / Curaçao vs Ivory Coast

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast

Group E
Curaçao Curaçao
Jun 25, 2026 - 20:00
0.96
1.74
19.1% 26.5% 54.4%
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast

Betting Signal

Sharp Money Alert

Curaçao ↑ +8.3%

8/12 sportsbooks confirmed

Steam Score: 54B — Moderate sharp signal

Model says
Ivory Coast 54.4%
Market says
Ivory Coast 77.6%
Difference
23.2 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Ivory Coast (77.6%).

However, Curaçao has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (↑ +8.3%, 8/12).

This creates a conflict: Model → Ivory Coast, Market → Ivory Coast, Recent sharp money → Curaçao.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move Curaçao ↑ +8.3%
Market breadth 8/12
Steam Score 54B
Phase Sharp repricing
Ref book Bet365 (Sharp-led move: SBO)
CLV validation Waiting for Close

Odds path — Curaçao

🐢 Slow drift over 147h 56m

Open 18.00
Low / High 7.40
Current 13.00

Market vs Model

Curaçao
19.1% vs 7.16%
+11.9 pp
Draw
26.5% vs 15.26%
+11.2 pp
Ivory Coast
54.4% vs 77.58%
-23.2 pp

Largest Gap

Ivory Coast -23.2 pp

The market is substantially more bullish on Ivory Coast than the model.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

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AI Forecast
Curaçao 19.1%
Draw 26.5%
Ivory Coast 54.4%

Generated from Elo-adjusted Poisson simulation. Not bookmaker odds.

Show Full Model Data
Poisson goal-line probabilities
Line Over Under
0.5 91.8% 8.2%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Match Expectations
Over 2.5 goals
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 goals
49.4%
Both teams to score
52.3%
Balanced
Clean sheet likely
47.7%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 52.3% · No 47.7% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Most Likely Scorelines
Score Probability
0-1 11.7%
1-1 11.2%
0-2 10.2%
1-2 9.8%
0-0 6.7%

Top Poisson cell: 0-1 at 11.7% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.2
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
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Group E fixtures