| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ecuador | 36.3% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Germany | 34.7% |
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| 1.5 | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| 2.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 3.5 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 4.5 | 13.7% | 86.3% |
Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).
BTTS Yes 56.5% · No 43.5% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.2% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).
1X2 from Elo-adjusted λ (1.37 / 1.33): home 36.3%, draw 29.0%, away 34.7%. Source: Dixon–Coles Poisson grid — not bookmaker odds.
Qualitative clarity of the 1X2 split — not a calibrated win-probability confidence interval.
- No outcome above 50% on the 1X2 grid.
- Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.6 percentage points.
How are win probabilities calculated?
Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.
Is this page betting advice?
No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.
What does xG / λ mean here?
λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.
Why are exact score probabilities low?
Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.
