Predictions / Football / England. Championship / Bristol City vs Derby

Bristol City vs Derby Strong steam move across 12/12 sportsbooks on Derby

Bristol City Bristol City
Jan 30, 2026 - 20:00
1.11
0.91
38% 34% 28%
Derby Derby

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite
Bristol City Balanced match
Model probability
38.2%
Market probability
43.6%
Market agreement
Strong
Validation
Pass

Summary:

Both lean Bristol City, but the market prices them higher (43.6% vs model 38.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Derby ↓ -7.9% 3.8 → 3.5
Move type
⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score
58B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
12/12
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Derby

🐢 Slow drift over 139h 6m

Open 4.10
Low / High 3.21
Current 3.50

Market Narrative

Betfair led repricing on Derby (7.9%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Strong
Validation
Pass
Largest gap
Bristol City -5.4 pp
Breadth
12/12
Current market activity
Derby odds shortened ↓ -7.9%.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bristol City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

However, recent buying interest has been on Derby, with odds shortening by 7.9%.

Buying interest on Derby — odds shortened by 7.9%.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Bristol City 38.24% 43.63% -5.4 pp
Draw 33.94% 28.78% +5.2 pp
Derby 27.83% 27.59% +0.2 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Bristol City vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Under 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (3.5/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
Premium betting site 1xbet: New users can use the promo code 1x_3342271 to receive $100 cash.
1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 38.2% Bristol City; Market consensus (3-way) 43.6%; Consensus-line EV -11.0%
No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.
⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 32.9% · Under 2.5 67.1%
Value lean: Under 2.5
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 41.8% · No 58.2%
Value lean: BTTS No
1X2 Poor value
Bristol City · Model probability 38.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 43.6%
Consensus-line EV: -11.0%
Best available bookmaker line: -1.5% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-0
Probability 14.7%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 3.5 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Draw probability above 30% (−0.5)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Derby market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Derby

Odds move
3.80 → 3.50 (↓ -7.9%)
Market breadth
12/12
Steam score
58 (B)
Current status
Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.15
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 95
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 84
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 83
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 80
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 80
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 73
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 71
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 69
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 65
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 64
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 64
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 62
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 60
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 60
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 58
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 57
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 55
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 55
19 Charlton 46 13 14 19 53
20 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 52
21 West Brom 46 13 14 19 51
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 47
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Coventry 46 97 45 +52 95
2 Southampton 46 82 56 +26 80
3 Ipswich 46 80 47 +33 84
4 Middlesbrough 46 72 47 +25 80
5 Hull City 46 70 66 +4 73
6 Wrexham 46 69 65 +4 71
7 Derby 46 67 59 +8 69
8 Sheffield Utd 46 66 66 0 60
9 Millwall 46 64 49 +15 83
10 Norwich 46 63 56 +7 65
11 QPR 46 61 73 -12 58
12 Bristol City 46 59 59 0 62
13 Leicester 46 58 68 -10 46
14 Birmingham 46 57 56 +1 64
15 Swansea 46 57 59 -2 64
16 Preston 46 55 62 -7 60
17 Watford 46 53 65 -12 57
18 Stoke City 46 51 56 -5 55
19 Portsmouth 46 49 64 -15 55
20 West Brom 46 48 58 -10 51
21 Oxford United 46 45 59 -14 47
22 Charlton 46 44 58 -14 53
23 Blackburn 46 42 56 -14 52
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 29 89 -60 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Coventry 46 84.9 49.6 +35.3 95
2 Ipswich 46 75.5 44.3 +31.2 84
3 Middlesbrough 46 69.5 41.4 +28.1 80
4 Southampton 46 76.3 57.0 +19.3 80
5 Sheffield Utd 46 70.5 56.8 +13.7 60
6 Birmingham 46 61.5 48.2 +13.3 64
7 West Brom 46 57.0 46.3 +10.7 51
8 Millwall 46 62.2 57.2 +5.0 83
9 Watford 46 55.1 53.3 +1.8 57
10 Derby 46 54.0 54.4 -0.4 69
11 Blackburn 46 53.4 54.5 -1.1 52
12 QPR 46 54.3 55.6 -1.3 58
13 Norwich 46 60.7 63.9 -3.2 65
14 Swansea 46 51.1 56.0 -4.9 64
15 Bristol City 46 54.9 60.7 -5.8 62
16 Portsmouth 46 46.9 52.7 -5.8 55
17 Wrexham 46 55.8 62.5 -6.7 71
18 Oxford United 46 51.6 58.3 -6.7 47
19 Leicester 46 54.2 64.8 -10.6 46
20 Stoke City 46 50.2 63.2 -13.0 55
21 Charlton 46 46.2 60.7 -14.5 53
22 Preston 46 52.8 68.0 -15.2 60
23 Hull City 46 58.8 78.3 -19.5 73
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 39.7 89.4 -49.7 0
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