Today's Summary
1
Significant Movements
Avg Move
21.1%
Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.
Low liquidity · Strong consensus · Weak CLV history
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| Match(1) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Copa de la División Profesional · Thu 22:30 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 19.0 |
23.0
since pub · 11h 58m |
↑ +21.1%
19.0
23.0
↔ Gradual move over 11h 58m 26.00 → 17.00 → 23.00 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/7
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +44.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +21.1%
William Hill
↑ +9.5%
Betano
↑ +8.6%
1xBet
↑ +5.4%
Marathonbet
↑ +5.4%
|
Steam Score:
85
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 22% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 6/7 books lengthened Gualberto Villarroel SJ together (21.1% drift, score 85) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
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