Today's Summary
4
Significant Movements
Avg Move
12.2%
Market Movement - World - UEFA U21 Championship Qualification
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Today's Market Analysis
- 4 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 12.2% move).
- Strongest steam: Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 (23.5%, 7 books).
- 4 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.
Today's Market Health
★★★★
☆
Healthy market
High liquidity · Strong consensus · Weak CLV history
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 2 moves > thresholdModerate
-
Bookmaker Consensus 4 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 40% shortening · 60% lengtheningModerate
-
CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV dataPending
Top Movers
- 1 ↑ +23.5%
- 2 ↑ +19.6%
- 3 ↑ +11.5%
Biggest Steam
-
Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 ↑ +23.5% Steam 85
-
2
North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 ↑ +19.6% Steam 83
-
3
Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 ↑ +11.5% Steam 48
Highest Breadth
-
1
Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 ↑ +23.5% 6/7
-
2
North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 ↑ +19.6% 6/7
-
3
Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 ↑ +11.5% 4/7
Most Books Agree
-
1
Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 ↑ +23.5%
- 2
-
3
Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 ↑ +11.5%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 ↑ +23.5%
- 2
-
3
Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 ↑ +11.5%
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 | Greece U21 | Latvia U21 ↑ +23.5% | -45.2 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 | Italy U21 | Armenia U21 ↑ +11.5% | -40.3 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Hungary U21 vs Lithuania U21 | Hungary U21 | Draw ↓ -3.8% | -22.1 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21 | Northern Ireland U21 | Draw ↓ -2.8% | -15.5 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 | Montenegro U21 | North Macedonia U21 ↑ +19.6% | -5.0 pp | Market Ahead |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 | Latvia U21 | ↑ +23.5% | 📉 Strong drift | 6/7 | Steam Score: 85 A+ |
| North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 | North Macedonia U21 | ↑ +19.6% | 📉 Strong drift | 6/7 | Steam Score: 83 A+ |
| Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 | Armenia U21 | ↑ +11.5% | ↘ Drift | 4/7 | Steam Score: 48 B |
Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.
Signal
Login to filter market moves
Sign in free to filter by steam score, move size, kickoff window, and signal type.
No matches for this filter.
Type at least 2 characters
No matching teams
No results under current filters — try All
| Match(5) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Thu 15:00 | Latvia U21 | 17.0 |
21.0
since pub · 18h |
↑ +23.5%
17.0
21.0
🐢 Slow drift over 18h 23.00 → 14.44 → 21.00 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/7
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +35.3%
William Hill
↑ +35.3%
1xBet
↑ +33.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +33.3%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +23.5%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +11.1%
|
Steam Score:
85
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 6/7 books lengthened Latvia U21 together (23.5% drift, score 85) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Thu 16:00 | North Macedonia U21 | 2.3 |
2.75
since pub · 19h 45m |
↑ +19.6%
2.3
2.75
🐢 Slow drift over 19h 45m 2.84 → 2.25 → 2.75 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
6/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +19.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +17.4%
William Hill
↑ +16.4%
1xBet
↑ +15.4%
Marathonbet
↑ +15.4%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +3.6%
|
Steam Score:
83
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +43/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 6/7 books lengthened North Macedonia U21 together (19.6% drift, score 83) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Thu 16:30 | Armenia U21 | 26.0 |
29.0
since pub · 12h |
↑ +11.5%
26.0
29.0
🐢 Slow drift over 12h 29.00 → 14.44 → 29.00 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
4/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +11.5%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +9.3%
1xBet
↑ +8.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +8.3%
|
Steam Score:
48
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +25/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Armenia U21 (11.5%, 4/7) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Hungary U21 vs Lithuania U21 UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Thu 17:00 | Draw | 4.5 |
4.33
since pub · 20h |
↓ -3.8%
4.5
4.33
🐢 Slow drift over 20h 4.77 → 3.58 → 4.33 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
4/7
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↓ -11.1%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -3.8%
Marathonbet
↓ -3.4%
1xBet
↓ -3.1%
|
Steam Score:
34
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +8/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Largest underdog steam | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on Draw (3.8%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21 UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Thu 18:45 | Draw | 3.6 |
3.5
since pub · 20h |
↓ -2.8%
3.6
3.5
🐢 Slow drift over 20h 3.78 → 2.98 → 3.50 |
⚠️ Volatile market |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
3/7
Books moving same direction
William Hill
↓ -6.1%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -2.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -2.8%
|
Steam Score:
15
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +6/45
Book synchronization: +13/30
Books reacting: +6/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.78 → 2.98 → 3.50) — net 2.8% but intraday chop is elevated. |
