Market Movement - Poland - Ekstraklasa
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Today's Market Analysis
- 2 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 3.1% move).
- Strongest steam: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze (6.2%, 10 books).
- 2 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- 1 finished matches already carry closing-line validation.
Today's Market Health
Moderate liquidity · Strong consensus · Reliable closing data
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 0 moves > thresholdLow
-
Bookmaker Consensus 2 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 0% shortening · 67% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 1 fixtures with CLV dataActive
Top Movers
- 1 ↑ +6.2%
- 2 ↑ +3.0%
Biggest Steam
-
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze ↑ +6.2% Steam 46
-
2
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin ↑ +3.0% Steam 18
Highest Breadth
-
1
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze ↑ +6.2% 7/10
-
2
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin ↑ +3.0% 3/10
Most Books Agree
-
1
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze ↑ +6.2%
- 2
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze ↑ +6.2%
- 2
League Intelligence (30 days)
Ekstraklasa (Poland) markets are monitored for opening odds, steam repricing, and closing-line movement across major sportsbooks. Domestic league fixtures typically offer steadier liquidity and more predictable closing lines than cup ties. When sufficient pricing data is available, OddsGPT tracks breadth, steam score, and CLV validation for each fixture.Over the last 30 days, average steam score reached 18.0 while bookmaker consensus averaged 30% breadth.
Over the past 30 days, Poland - Ekstraklasa has produced quiet repricing patterns with an average Steam Score of 18.0. Typical line moves averaged 3.0% and the largest swing reached 3.0%. Historical closing-line validation has remained balanced (0% positive). Home-side steam represented —% of tracked signals; favourites drew —% of steam-backed moves.
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze | Gornik Zabrze | Jagiellonia ↑ +6.2% | +6.5 pp | Mild Value |
| Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Cracovia Krakow | Draw ↑ +3.0% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze | Jagiellonia | ↑ +6.2% | ⚡ Sharp-led move | 7/10 | Steam Score: 46 B |
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| Match(3) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa · Sat 18:15 | Jagiellonia | 2.4 |
2.55
kickoff in 4h 54m |
↑ +6.2%
2.4
2.55
🐢 Slow drift over 104h 50m 2.74 → 2.32 → 2.55 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
7/10
Books moving same direction
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +7.5%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +6.2%
BetVictor
↑ +6.2%
SBO Sharp
↑ +5.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +4.1%
William Hill
↑ +4.0%
Dafabet
↑ +2.0%
|
Steam Score:
46
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +14/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Pinnacle led repricing on Jagiellonia (6.2%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa · Sat 15:30 | Slask Wroclaw | 5.0 |
5.0
kickoff in 2h 9m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 5.04 → 4.20 → 5.00 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
8/10
Books moving same direction
Betano
↑ +1.1%
William Hill
↓ -1.0%
1xBet
+0.0%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
BetVictor
+0.0%
Betfair Sharp
+0.0%
Dafabet
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
24
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +24/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Highest consensus move | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Slask Wroclaw (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 18.2% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa · Sat 12:45 | Draw | 3.3 |
3.4
since pub · 103h 31m |
↑ +3.0%
3.3
3.4
🐢 Slow drift over 103h 31m 3.56 → 3.08 → 3.40 |
⚠️ Volatile market |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: SBO |
3/10
Books moving same direction
SBO Sharp
↑ +3.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +3.0%
Dafabet
↑ +2.9%
|
Steam Score:
18
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +7/45
Book synchronization: +9/30
Books reacting: +6/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest closing-window shift | Volatile | P20: 3.23 · P10: 3.23 · P5: 3.23 · P1: 3.23 | Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.56 → 3.08 → 3.40) — net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated. |