Market Movement - Slovenia - 2. SNL
Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.
Today's Market Analysis
- 4 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 17.1% move).
- Strongest steam: Dekani vs Dren Vrhnika (26.7%, 8 books).
- 2 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.
Today's Market Health
Moderate liquidity · Strong consensus · Weak CLV history
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 2 moves > thresholdModerate
-
Bookmaker Consensus 2 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 0% shortening · 100% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV dataPending
Top Movers
- 1 ↑ +27.7%
- 2 ↑ +26.7%
- 3 ↑ +8.3%
Biggest Steam
-
Dekani vs Dren Vrhnika ↑ +26.7% Steam 80
-
2
Ilirija vs Krka ↑ +27.7% Steam 52
-
3
Beltinci vs Bilje ↑ +5.6% Steam 46
Highest Breadth
-
1
Dekani vs Dren Vrhnika ↑ +26.7% 7/8
-
2
Beltinci vs Bilje ↑ +5.6% 6/8
-
3
Ilirija vs Krka ↑ +27.7% 1/7
Most Books Agree
-
1
Jesenice vs Brežice ↑ +8.3%
-
2
Beltinci vs Bilje ↑ +5.6%
-
3
Dekani vs Dren Vrhnika ↑ +26.7%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Ilirija vs Krka ↑ +27.7%
-
2
Dekani vs Dren Vrhnika ↑ +26.7%
-
3
Jesenice vs Brežice ↑ +8.3%
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| Match(4) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilirija vs Krka 2. SNL · Sat 14:00 | Krka | 2.35 |
3.0
kickoff in 41m |
↑ +27.7%
2.35
3.0
🐢 Slow drift over 45h 14m 3.05 → 2.35 → 3.00 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
1/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +27.7%
|
Steam Score:
52
B
Moderate sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +4/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Krka (27.7%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Jesenice vs Brežice 2. SNL · Sat 14:00 | Brežice | 4.0 |
4.33
kickoff in 41m |
↑ +8.3%
4.0
4.33
🐢 Slow drift over 45h 14m 4.40 → 3.26 → 4.33 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
1/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +8.3%
|
Steam Score:
25
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +18/45
Book synchronization: +4/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Brežice (8.3%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Beltinci vs Bilje 2. SNL · Sat 14:00 | Draw | 4.5 |
4.75
kickoff in 41m |
↑ +5.6%
4.5
4.75
🐢 Slow drift over 45h 14m 5.20 → 4.10 → 4.75 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
6/8
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +7.4%
Marathonbet
↑ +7.4%
Betano
↑ +6.2%
Dafabet
↑ +6.1%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +5.6%
BetVictor
↑ +2.4%
|
Steam Score:
46
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +12/45
Book synchronization: +22/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Draw (5.6%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Dekani vs Dren Vrhnika 2. SNL · Sat 14:00 | Dren Vrhnika | 3.0 |
3.8
kickoff in 41m |
↑ +26.7%
3.0
3.8
🐢 Slow drift over 45h 14m 4.05 → 2.80 → 3.80 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
7/8
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +28.6%
1xBet
↑ +27.5%
Marathonbet
↑ +27.5%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +26.7%
Betano
↑ +24.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +23.1%
Dafabet
↑ +23.1%
|
Steam Score:
80
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Highest consensus move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 7/8 books lengthened Dren Vrhnika together (26.7% drift, score 80) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |