Today's Summary
2
Significant Movements
Avg Move
24.5%
Market Movement - Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX
Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.
Today's Market Analysis
- 2 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 24.5% move).
- Strongest steam: Tlaxcala vs Piratas (19.4%, 10 books).
- 1 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.
Today's Market Health
★★★
☆☆
Mixed signals
Moderate liquidity · Strong consensus · Weak CLV history
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 2 moves > thresholdModerate
-
Bookmaker Consensus 1 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 0% shortening · 100% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV dataPending
Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.
Signal
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| Match(2) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG Liga de Expansión MX · Sat 23:00 | Leones Negros UDG | 2.7 |
3.5
kickoff in 5h 51m |
↑ +29.6%
2.7
3.5
🐢 Slow drift over 127h 51m 3.50 → 2.70 → 3.50 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
2/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +29.6%
SBO Sharp
↑ +2.1%
|
Steam Score:
56
B
Moderate sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +6/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Leones Negros UDG (29.6%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Tlaxcala vs Piratas Liga de Expansión MX · Sat 22:00 | Tlaxcala | 3.1 |
3.7
kickoff in 4h 51m |
↑ +19.4%
3.1
3.7
🐢 Slow drift over 127h 51m 3.77 → 3.10 → 3.70 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
8/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +19.4%
Betano
↑ +14.1%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +12.5%
Marathonbet
↑ +11.5%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +9.4%
1xBet
↑ +8.5%
William Hill
↑ +6.5%
Dafabet
↑ +6.2%
|
Steam Score:
61
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +43/45
Book synchronization: +24/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -20
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Highest consensus move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 8/10 books lengthened Tlaxcala together (19.4% drift, score 61) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
