Today's Summary
4
Significant Movements
Avg Move
9.2%
Market Movement - Argentina - Primera Nacional
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Today's Market Analysis
- 4 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 9.2% move).
- Strongest steam: Quilmes vs Agropecuario (13.0%, 10 books).
- 1 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.
Today's Market Health
★★★
☆☆
Mixed signals
Moderate liquidity · Mixed consensus · Weak CLV history
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 2 moves > thresholdModerate
-
Bookmaker Consensus 1 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 75% shortening · 25% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV dataPending
Top Movers
- 1 ↓ -13.0%
- 2 ↓ -12.1%
- 3 ↓ -6.1%
Biggest Steam
-
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0% Steam 66
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1% Steam 58
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1% Steam 34
Highest Breadth
-
1
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0% 7/10
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1% 5/10
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1% 5/10
Most Books Agree
-
1
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0%
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1%
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0%
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1%
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1%
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes vs Agropecuario | Quilmes | Agropecuario ↓ -13.0% | -18.8 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela | Atletico DE Rafaela | Draw ↓ -6.1% | +14.6 pp | Strong Disagreement |
| Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez | Draw | Colegiales ↓ -12.1% | -5.5 pp | Market Ahead |
| Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors | Chacarita Juniors | Chacarita Juniors ↑ +5.5% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes vs Agropecuario | Agropecuario | ↓ -13.0% | 📈 Steam | 7/10 | Steam Score: 66 A |
| Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez | Colegiales | ↓ -12.1% | 📈 Steam | 5/10 | Steam Score: 58 B |
Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.
Signal
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| Match(4) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes vs Agropecuario Primera Nacional · Sat 19:00 | Agropecuario | 5.75 |
5.0
kickoff in 2h 35m |
↓ -13.0%
5.75
5.0
🐢 Slow drift over 124h 8m 5.75 → 4.08 → 5.00 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
7/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -13.0%
1xBet
↓ -12.7%
Betano
↓ -10.2%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -9.1%
Marathonbet
↓ -8.1%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -8.0%
William Hill
↓ -5.0%
|
Steam Score:
66
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +29/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Agropecuario (13.0%, 7/10) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez Primera Nacional · Sat 18:00 | Colegiales | 2.9 |
2.55
kickoff in 95m |
↓ -12.1%
2.9
2.55
🐢 Slow drift over 125h 28m 2.90 → 2.32 → 2.55 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
5/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -12.1%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -6.8%
Betano
↓ -5.4%
1xBet
↓ -4.9%
William Hill
↓ -4.7%
|
Steam Score:
58
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +27/45
Book synchronization: +15/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Colegiales (12.1%, 5/10) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela Primera Nacional · Sat 19:30 | Draw | 3.3 |
3.1
kickoff in 3h 5m |
↓ -6.1%
3.3
3.1
🐢 Slow drift over 125h 28m 3.45 → 2.73 → 3.10 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
5/10
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↓ -14.5%
William Hill
↓ -9.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -6.1%
Betano
↓ -3.2%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -3.2%
|
Steam Score:
34
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +13/45
Book synchronization: +15/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.45 → 2.73 → 3.10) — net 6.1% but intraday chop is elevated. |
| Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors Primera Nacional · Sat 18:30 | Chacarita Juniors | 2.75 |
2.9
kickoff in 2h 5m |
↑ +5.5%
2.75
2.9
🐢 Slow drift over 125h 28m 3.27 → 2.71 → 2.90 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
2/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +5.5%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +2.9%
|
Steam Score:
18
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +12/45
Book synchronization: +6/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Chacarita Juniors (swing 3.27 → 2.71 → 2.90) — net 5.5% but intraday chop is elevated. |
