Today's Summary
4
Significant Movements
Avg Move
9.2%
Market Movement - Argentina - Primera Nacional
Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.
Today's Market Analysis
- 4 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 9.2% move).
- Strongest steam: Quilmes vs Agropecuario (13.0%, 10 books).
- 1 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.
Today's Market Health
★★★
☆☆
Mixed signals
Moderate liquidity · Mixed consensus · Weak CLV history
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 2 moves > thresholdModerate
-
Bookmaker Consensus 1 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 75% shortening · 25% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV dataPending
Top Movers
- 1 ↓ -13.0%
- 2 ↓ -12.1%
- 3 ↓ -6.1%
Biggest Steam
-
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0% Steam 66
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1% Steam 58
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1% Steam 34
Highest Breadth
-
1
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0% 7/10
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1% 5/10
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1% 5/10
Most Books Agree
-
1
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0%
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1%
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Quilmes vs Agropecuario ↓ -13.0%
-
2
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez ↓ -12.1%
-
3
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela ↓ -6.1%
Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.
Signal
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| Match(4) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes vs Agropecuario Primera Nacional · Sat 19:00 | Agropecuario | 5.75 |
5.0
kickoff in 100m |
↓ -13.0%
5.75
5.0
🐢 Slow drift over 124h 8m 5.75 → 4.08 → 5.00 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
7/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -13.0%
1xBet
↓ -12.7%
Betano
↓ -10.2%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -9.1%
Marathonbet
↓ -8.1%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -8.0%
William Hill
↓ -5.0%
|
Steam Score:
66
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +29/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Agropecuario (13.0%, 7/10) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez Primera Nacional · Sat 18:00 | Colegiales | 2.9 |
2.55
kickoff in 40m |
↓ -12.1%
2.9
2.55
🐢 Slow drift over 125h 28m 2.90 → 2.32 → 2.55 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
5/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -12.1%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -6.8%
Betano
↓ -5.4%
1xBet
↓ -4.9%
William Hill
↓ -4.7%
|
Steam Score:
58
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +27/45
Book synchronization: +15/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Colegiales (12.1%, 5/10) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela Primera Nacional · Sat 19:30 | Draw | 3.3 |
3.1
kickoff in 2h 10m |
↓ -6.1%
3.3
3.1
🐢 Slow drift over 125h 28m 3.45 → 2.73 → 3.10 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
5/10
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↓ -14.5%
William Hill
↓ -9.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -6.1%
Betano
↓ -3.2%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -3.2%
|
Steam Score:
34
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +13/45
Book synchronization: +15/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.45 → 2.73 → 3.10) — net 6.1% but intraday chop is elevated. |
| Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors Primera Nacional · Sat 18:30 | Chacarita Juniors | 2.75 |
2.9
kickoff in 70m |
↑ +5.5%
2.75
2.9
🐢 Slow drift over 125h 28m 3.27 → 2.71 → 2.90 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
2/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +5.5%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +2.9%
|
Steam Score:
18
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +12/45
Book synchronization: +6/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Chacarita Juniors (swing 3.27 → 2.71 → 2.90) — net 5.5% but intraday chop is elevated. |
