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Market Movement - Wales - FAW Championship

Predictions

Finished matches: the 1X2 side with the largest opening→closing odds move.

Last updated: Live Next refresh: Time window: today Total fixtures: 9

Today's Summary

7 Significant Movements
Avg Move 17.0%

Today's Market Analysis

  • 7 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 17.0% move).
  • Strongest steam: Caersws vs Bala Town (22.3%, 7 books).
  • 6 fixtures showed broad consensus.
  • 9 finished matches already carry closing-line validation.

Today's Market Health

★★★★ ☆
Healthy market

High liquidity · Strong consensus · Reliable closing data

Market Metrics

  • Steam Activity 5 moves > threshold
    High
  • Bookmaker Consensus 6 broad repricing events
    Moderate
  • Market Trend 44% shortening · 56% lengthening
    Low
  • CLV Context 9 fixtures with CLV data
    Active

Top Movers

  1. 1
    Guilsfield vs Llanuwchllyn
    ↑ +66.6%
  2. 2
    Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town
    ↑ +25.1%
  3. 3
    Caersws vs Bala Town
    ↑ +22.3%

Biggest Steam

  1. Caersws vs Bala Town ↑ +22.3% Steam 80
  2. 2
    Guilsfield vs Llanuwchllyn ↑ +66.6% Steam 80
  3. 3
    Mold Alexandra vs Newtown AFC ↓ -12.8% Steam 66

Highest Breadth

  1. 1
    Caersws vs Bala Town ↑ +22.3% 6/7
  2. 2
    Guilsfield vs Llanuwchllyn ↑ +66.6% 6/7
  3. 3
    Mold Alexandra vs Newtown AFC ↓ -12.8% 5/7

Most CLV Edge

  1. 1
    Guilsfield vs Llanuwchllyn -40.0%
  2. 2
    Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town -20.1%
  3. 3
    Caersws vs Bala Town -18.2%

Most Books Agree

  1. 1
    Mold Alexandra vs Newtown AFC ↓ -12.8%
  2. 2
    Rhyl vs Brickfield Rangers ↓ -10.3%
  3. 3
    Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City ↓ -6.2%

Fastest Odds Change

  1. 1
    Guilsfield vs Llanuwchllyn ↑ +66.6%
  2. 2
    Caersws vs Bala Town ↑ +22.3%
  3. 3
    Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town ↑ +25.1%

League Intelligence (30 days)

3 Matches Tracked
28.3 Avg Steam
2.6% Avg Move
7.9% Biggest Move

FAW Championship (Wales) markets are monitored for opening odds, steam repricing, and closing-line movement across major sportsbooks. Domestic league fixtures typically offer steadier liquidity and more predictable closing lines than cup ties. When sufficient pricing data is available, OddsGPT tracks breadth, steam score, and CLV validation for each fixture.Over the last 30 days, average steam score reached 28.3 while bookmaker consensus averaged 80% breadth.

Over the past 30 days, Wales - FAW Championship has produced quiet repricing patterns with an average Steam Score of 28.3. Typical line moves averaged 2.6% and the largest swing reached 7.9%. Historical closing-line validation has remained balanced (0% positive). Home-side steam represented —% of tracked signals; favourites drew —% of steam-backed moves.

Live Market Moves Early Sharp Moves Final Closing Moves Move Review
Each row tracks the 1X2 side with the largest opening→closing odds move. CLV compares that side's opening line to the captured closing line; Replay ROI is a flat 1-unit backtest on that side only — for market-behavior review, not strategy performance.

Market Reality Check

Does the largest opening→closing move survive to the close? Flat 1-unit replay — market behavior review, not a betting strategy.

Basic match replay is free. Steam breakdown, book consensus, and historical similar-move stats require login.

9
Matches reviewed
44.4%
Largest move held to close
0.0%
Tracked side won
0.0%
Held & won
-100.0%
Replay ROI
This scope All markets today: 455 matches · 35.6% held · Replay ROI -4.2%

Large market moves are common, but most do not survive to the closing line and have not been profitable in this sample.

Historical pattern performance

Steam Score 85+
— samples
Held to close: 71%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
A+ Sharp repricing
— samples
Held to close: 64%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
Sharp-led moves
— samples
Held to close: 22%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
Market move replay
Match(9) Largest-move side? Home, draw, or away with the biggest opening→closing odds change — a descriptive label, not a bet signal. Home, draw, or away with the biggest opening→closing odds change — a descriptive label, not a bet signal. Opening Closing CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Held to close Outcome Score Market depth
Mold Alexandra vs Newtown AFC FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Mold Alexandra 2.88 2.51 +14.7% ✓ Held L 1-2
Steam Score 66 A
Market Breadth 5/7
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 2.51 · P5: 2.51 · P10: 2.51 · P30: 2.51
Rhyl vs Brickfield Rangers FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Rhyl 3.0 2.69 +11.5% ✓ Held L 2-3
Steam Score 54 B
Market Breadth 4/7
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 2.69 · P5: 2.69 · P10: 2.69 · P30: 2.69
Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Cardiff Draconians 2.75 2.58 +6.6% ✓ Held L 1-1
Steam Score 40 B
Market Breadth 4/7
Sharp-led move Betfair
P1: 2.58 · P5: 2.58 · P10: 2.58 · P30: 2.58
Buckley Town vs Ruthin Town FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Buckley Town 1.48 1.46 +1.4% ✓ Held L 1-1
Market Breadth 1/7
P1: 1.46 · P5: 1.46 · P10: 1.46 · P30: 1.46
Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Penrhyncoch 1.95 1.97 -1.0% ✗ Reversed L 0-1
Market Breadth 1/7
P1: 1.97 · P5: 1.97 · P10: 1.97 · P30: 1.97
Porthmadog vs Bangor 1876 FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Bangor 1876 2.5 2.69 -7.1% ✗ Reversed L 1-0
Steam Score 49 B
Market Breadth 5/7
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 2.69 · P5: 2.69 · P10: 2.69 · P30: 2.69
Caersws vs Bala Town FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Caersws 2.38 2.91 -18.2% ✗ Reversed L 3-3
Steam Score 80 A+
Market Breadth 6/7
Sharp-led move Betfair
P1: 2.91 · P5: 2.91 · P10: 2.91 · P30: 2.91
Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Pontypridd Town 2.35 2.94 -20.1% ✗ Reversed L 1-3
Steam Score 65 A
Market Breadth 3/7
Sharp-led move Bet365
P1: 2.94 · P5: 2.94 · P10: 2.94 · P30: 2.94
Guilsfield vs Llanuwchllyn FAW Championship · Sat 13:30 Llanuwchllyn 3.8 6.33 -40.0% ✗ Reversed L 1-0
Steam Score 80 A+
Market Breadth 6/7
Sharp-led move Betfair
P1: 6.33 · P5: 6.33 · P10: 6.33 · P30: 6.33