Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Recoleta win · Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional Asunción
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "df683be74a007f11e395b97da6959cb9b12539f2baa97fbfa2eadd952d7926fa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.2364,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.364,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.636,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2439,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.23,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.1,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.97,
"home_win_prob": 0.5197,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.633,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.368
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Nacional Asunci\u00f3n and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Deportivo Recoleta",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"confidence": 52.0,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Deportivo Recoleta",
"edge": 0.2695,
"edge_gap": 0.2766,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2507,
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 23.6,
"draw": 24.4,
"home": 52.0
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Deportivo Recoleta"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.8
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.8,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Deportivo Recoleta Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.99,
"market_odds": 3.8,
"model_odds": 1.92,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 25.8,
"value_pct": 97.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 86.1,
"no_prob": 36.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 63.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.97,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Recoleta or Draw",
"prob": 76.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Recoleta or Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"prob": 75.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"prob": 48.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Recoleta or Draw",
"pick_prob": 76.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 23.6,
"draw_pct": 24.4,
"home_pct": 52.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Recoleta"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.26,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 63.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.26,
"under_prob": 36.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 97.9,
"implied_prob": 26.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Deportivo Recoleta Win",
"model_prob": 52.1,
"odds": 3.8
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 45.8,
"draw": 29.13,
"home": 25.07
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-03 21:29:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-03 20:59:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.07,
"gap_pp": 26.95,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 52.02
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.13,
"gap_pp": -4.77,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.8,
"gap_pp": -22.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 23.61
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.4,
"gap_pp": 22.8,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 63.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.6,
"gap_pp": -22.8,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 36.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.8,
"early": 3.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.07,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.27,
"early": 3.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.13,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.36,
"early": 2.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 26.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.97,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
"best_odds": 4.1,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Deportivo Recoleta",
"edge": 27.6,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 52.0
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.8,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1357,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.6,
"text": "+13.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1357,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.6,
"text": "+13.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"sort_key": 10272.13,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 63.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 36.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 36.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 26.9,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"market_prob_pct": 25.1,
"market_team": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"model_prob_pct": 52.0,
"model_team": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9769,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Deportivo Recoleta at 52.0% vs market 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Deportivo Recoleta as the stronger side (52.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Deportivo Recoleta \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +98% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584349 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +98% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2631578947368421,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
"evidence": {
"score": 58,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.6,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 26.9,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 26.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 46.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.97,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.97,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.97 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +46%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9769,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Deportivo Recoleta at 52.0% vs market 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Deportivo Recoleta as the stronger side (52.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Deportivo Recoleta \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +98% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584349 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +98% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2631578947368421,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Recoleta 1.97 xG vs Nacional Asunci\u00f3n 1.29 \u2192 Deportivo Recoleta 52.0%",
"Market: Nacional Asunci\u00f3n ~25.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Recoleta +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Deportivo Recoleta, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 26.9,
"fair_prob": 51.97,
"label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"market_prob": 25.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.74,
"fair_prob": 24.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.16,
"fair_prob": 23.64,
"label": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 45.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 63.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 63.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 26.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"market_prob_pct": 25.07,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Recoleta"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Recoleta\u0027s win probability at 52.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.1%, a difference of 26.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 26.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+26.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 26.9,
"model_prob_pct": 52.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+26.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 26.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Recoleta 1.97 xG vs Nacional Asunci\u00f3n 1.29 \u2192 Deportivo Recoleta 52.0%",
"Market: Nacional Asunci\u00f3n ~25.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Recoleta +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Deportivo Recoleta, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 26.9,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 26.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 27.6 pp (at 52.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 27.6,
"max_prob_pct": 52.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"largest_gap_pp": 26.9,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Recoleta considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 26.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 26.9,
"edge_pp": 26.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"market_prob_pct": 25.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.74,
"edge_pp": -4.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -22.16,
"edge_pp": -22.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 45.8,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nacional Asunci\u00f3n (25.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Recoleta, Market \u2192 Nacional Asunci\u00f3n, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.32,
"closing_odds": 3.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.32,
"entry_odds": 3.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"away_team_id": 1175,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1175.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"away_team_slug": "nacional-asuncion",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1584349,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"home_team_id": 10476,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10476.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-recoleta",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-03 21:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Ricardo Gregor"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3002,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0666,
"ev": -0.1859,
"implied_prob": 0.458,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.458,
"draw": 0.2913,
"home": 0.2507
},
"model_prob": 0.2361,
"p_final": 0.3914
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2785,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.0908,
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.458,
"draw": 0.2913,
"home": 0.2507
},
"model_prob": 0.2436,
"p_final": 0.278
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1787,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0482,
"ev": 0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.458,
"draw": 0.2913,
"home": 0.2507
},
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"p_final": 0.2989
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.2446,
"ev": -0.5088,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.2361
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": -0.0622,
"ev": -0.2033,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.2436
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": 0.2571,
"ev": 0.9769,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.5202
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9769,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1357,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.5,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9769,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Deportivo Recoleta at 52.0% vs market 25.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Deportivo Recoleta as the stronger side (52.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 27.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Deportivo Recoleta \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +98% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1584349 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Deportivo Recoleta, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Recoleta.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +98% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2631578947368421,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.636,
"draw_prob": 0.2436,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5202,
"over_prob": 0.632,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"under_prob": 0.368,
"xg_diff": 0.68
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.8,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0482,
"ev": 0.1357,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Recoleta"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1584349,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1357,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2361,
"draw": 0.2436,
"home": 0.5202
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nacional Asunci\u00f3n",
"home": "Deportivo Recoleta"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.056473,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Recoleta",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1357,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.8,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5202,
"raw_edge_display": "+27.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2631578947368421,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1584349,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-03T21:29:13.054713+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Deportivo Recoleta & Nacional Asunción!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
División Profesional - Clausura — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asunción | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asunción | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
