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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 San Martín de San Juan Quilmes ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Quilmes win · Quilmes 1–0 San Martín de San Juan
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a1c658fb69d5ea8abe73726bca0484618b3deb9dbf78005da3d6f8b73ffa2a95",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"away_win_prob": 0.3994,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.5,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.27,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"home_win_prob": 0.3058,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or San Mart\u00edn de San Juan and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan"
},
"away_xg": 1.4,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1866,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.213,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 30.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.46
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.46,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.69,
"market_odds": 4.46,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": 17.6,
"value_pct": 78.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 75.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 11,
"home_failed_to_score": 14,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 69.9,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.4,
"home_expected": 1.2,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Quilmes or Draw",
"prob": 60.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Quilmes or San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"prob": 69.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Quilmes or San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.9,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 30.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 78.4,
"implied_prob": 22.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 4.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.4,
"ev": -0.2125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.3,
"market_prob": 0.1587,
"market_prob_pct": 15.9,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.2,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.4094,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.122,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5628
},
"p_final": 0.4296,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0333,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4296
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2597,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.0,
"text": "-26.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2489,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.9,
"text": "+24.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2489,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10374.01,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0202,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.348,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.348,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"p_final": 0.3683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2821,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.652,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6241
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3351,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 33.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2385,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.8,
"text": "-23.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3351,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10301.59,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.07,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.0,
"text": "+7.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.213,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.07,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.0,
"text": "+7.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"sort_key": 10063.0,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +39.7%",
"alert_team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3351,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de San Juan at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de San Juan as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side San Mart\u00edn de San Juan \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +78% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498808 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +78% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.07,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.213,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2242152466367713,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +39.7%",
"steam_team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3351,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de San Juan at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de San Juan as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side San Mart\u00edn de San Juan \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +78% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498808 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +78% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.07,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.213,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2242152466367713,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Quilmes 1.20 xG vs San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 1.40 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 39.9%",
"Market Drift: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan odds \u2191 +39.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Quilmes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.04,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.04,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Quilmes 1.20 xG vs San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 1.40 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 39.9%",
"Market Drift: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan odds \u2191 +39.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan odds lengthened \u2191 +39.7%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Quilmes",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans San Mart\u00edn de San Juan (39.9%).",
"However, San Mart\u00edn de San Juan has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +39.7%, 11/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.09,
"entry_odds": 4.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +42.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +42.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +39.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +38.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 38.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "Ready to validate",
"clv_status": "ready",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +39.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 39.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 8m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"11/13 books lengthened San Mart\u00edn de San Juan together (39.7% drift, score 66) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 39.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.46",
"3.78",
"3.10"
],
"display": "4.60 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 128h 8m",
"pick_team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
4.46,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan odds \u2191 +39.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan odds \u2191 +39.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +39.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2191 +39.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-martin-s-j",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"away_team_id": 461,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/461.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"away_team_public_id": "5A6IjoayktbKe0",
"away_team_slug": "san-martin-s-j",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498808,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Quilmes",
"home_team_id": 480,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/480.webp",
"home_team_name": "Quilmes",
"home_team_public_id": "54UK5SuEeMG2V0",
"home_team_slug": "quilmes",
"ht.home_team_slug": "quilmes",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 20:00:00",
"public_id": "0ckUDYpuoCoNOA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quilmes",
"venue_name": "Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"best_odd": 4.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.213,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.213,
"draw": 0.2997,
"home": 0.4872
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.2399
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2978,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0015,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.213,
"draw": 0.2997,
"home": 0.4872
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2982
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4365,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0793,
"ev": -0.2045,
"implied_prob": 0.4872,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.213,
"draw": 0.2997,
"home": 0.4872
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.4079
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.46,
"edge": 0.1755,
"ev": 0.7826,
"implied_prob": 0.2242,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.0656,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.2073,
"ev": -0.4041,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2078,
"alpha_yes": 0.1511,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1304,
"edge_yes": 0.1304,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2597,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.122,
"ev_yes": 0.2489,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0333,
"implied_no": 0.5874,
"implied_yes": 0.4126,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.122,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5628
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4296
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5628,
"p_final_yes": 0.4296,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.151,
"alpha_under": 0.2077,
"best_over_odd": 2.77,
"best_under_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.42,
"edge_over": 0.1317,
"edge_under": -0.1317,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3351,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0204,
"ev_under": -0.2385,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1137,
"implied_over": 0.3503,
"implied_over_mf": 0.348,
"implied_under": 0.6497,
"implied_under_mf": 0.652,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.348,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.652,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6241
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3683,
"p_final_under": 0.6241,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3351,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7826,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3351,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3351,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7826,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de San Juan at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de San Juan as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side San Mart\u00edn de San Juan \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +78% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498808 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +78% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from San Mart\u00edn de San Juan, but the model still strongly favours San Mart\u00edn de San Juan.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.07,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.213,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2242152466367713,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.213,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.4094,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.122,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5628
},
"p_final": 0.4296,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0333,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4296
}
},
"edge": 0.1304,
"ev": 0.2489,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0202,
"market_prob": 0.348,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.151,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.348,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"p_final": 0.3683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.652,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6241
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1317,
"ev": 0.3351,
"implied_prob": 0.3503,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498808,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3351,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3351,
"implied_prob": 0.3503,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3351,
"implied_prob": 0.3503,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"home": "Quilmes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.135153,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2489,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.07,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.213,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2242152466367713,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7827,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498808,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T20:02:50.809459+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
