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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Deportivo Maipú Deportivo Maipú ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.81
AI Fair Odds
2.84
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Maipú win · Deportivo Maipú 2–0 Agropecuario
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 35.2%
- Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.2.1",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Deportivo Maip\u00fa or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0931,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4449,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.14
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.14,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.25,
"market_odds": 2.14,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -11.5,
"value_pct": -24.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 18,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa or Agropecuario",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Agropecuario",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa or Agropecuario",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 34.1,
"implied_prob": 26.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Agropecuario Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.81
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Agropecuario",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.99,
"draw": 30.52,
"home": 44.49
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.99,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.49,
"gap_pp": -9.31,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.52,
"gap_pp": -0.87,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.99,
"gap_pp": 10.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.44,
"gap_pp": 10.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.56,
"gap_pp": -10.76,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.14,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.99,
"implied_early_pct": 43.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.12,
"early": 3.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.52,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.02,
"implied_early_pct": 30.54,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.81,
"early": 3.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.99,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.97,
"implied_early_pct": 25.96,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.54,
"early": 2.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.44,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.52,
"early": 1.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.56,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.125,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4449,
"max_ev": 0.0508,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"sort_key": 5390.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"alert_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.18,
"hero_label": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"market_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"evidence": {
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market partially disagrees",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor"
}
},
"verdict": {
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Maip\u00fa 1.30 xG vs Agropecuario 1.30 \u2192 Deportivo Maip\u00fa 35.2%",
"Market: Deportivo Maip\u00fa ~44.5% implied",
"Steam: Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2191 +7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.32,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob": 44.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.87,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.18,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob": 24.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob_pct": 24.99,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Agropecuario\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.0%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa, but the market prices them higher (44.5% vs model 35.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Maip\u00fa 1.30 xG vs Agropecuario 1.30 \u2192 Deportivo Maip\u00fa 35.2%",
"Market: Deportivo Maip\u00fa ~44.5% implied",
"Steam: Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2191 +7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.18,
"hero_label": "Agropecuario",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa odds lengthened \u2191 +7.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Deportivo Maip\u00fa has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Agropecuario.",
"note": "Drift away from Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Agropecuario.",
"However, Deportivo Maip\u00fa has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Agropecuario more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Deportivo Maip\u00fa has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Agropecuario",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.2,
"lead": "The model rates Agropecuario considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.32,
"edge_pp": -9.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"market_prob_pct": 44.49,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.87,
"edge_pp": -0.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.18,
"edge_pp": 10.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob_pct": 24.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Deportivo Maip\u00fa \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Maip\u00fa (44.5%).",
"Deportivo Maip\u00fa has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +7.5%, 7/13).",
"Both lean Deportivo Maip\u00fa, but the market prices them higher (44.5% vs model 35.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.25,
"closing_odds": 3.81,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.25,
"entry_odds": 3.81,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Deportivo Maip\u00fa (swing 2.19 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.15) \u2014 net 7.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.19",
"2.09",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.19 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.15",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 39m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.19"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.14,
2.19,
2.15
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,4.7 37.3,0.0 56.0,3.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.19"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 7/13 sportsbooks on Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_id": 462,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/462.webp",
"away_team_name": "Agropecuario",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498623,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 1954,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1954.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-05 19:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Maipu",
"venue_name": "Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2542,
"best_odd": 3.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.2499,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2758
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2961,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.3052,
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3026
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3871,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.4449,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4089
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0508,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.4449,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1498623,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0508,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Agropecuario",
"home": "Deportivo Maip\u00fa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.019659,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.2499,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Agropecuario",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498623,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-05T20:19:52.922068+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
