Estadísticas / Fútbol / Argentina. Primera Nacional / Central Norte vs San Telmo

Central Norte vs San Telmo Statistics & Analysis

Jun 14, 2026 - 19:30
0 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 49%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Central Norte Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1868640

Closing Odds 4.89
AI Fair Odds 2.84
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Central Norte 0–0 San Telmo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 35.2%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando San Telmo (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Más de 2,5 goles en unos 16.5 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Central Norte (1X2) 35.2 47.5 -12.4
Dibujar (1X2) 29.6 33.0 -3.4
San Telmo (1X2) 35.2 19.4 +15.7
Más de 2,5 goles 48.2 31.7 +16.5
Menos de 2,5 goles 51.8 68.3 -16.5
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 48.2% en Más de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 31.7%. La diferencia —unos 16.5 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Central Norte (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 2.88 2.88 0.0
San Telmo (1X2) 4.89 4.89 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 2.99 2.99 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 1.39 1.39 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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        "alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
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          "outcome": "draw"
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          "outcome": "away"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 32.55,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.65,
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          "market_prob": 67.45,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
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          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 39.61,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.89,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 60.39,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 15.73,
        "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "San Telmo",
        "market_prob_pct": 19.44,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "San Telmo"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 15.73,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
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          "favourite_label": "Central Norte",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 47.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Central Norte, but the market prices them higher (47.5% vs model 35.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 15.73,
        "hero_label": "San Telmo",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "San Telmo odds lengthened \u2191 +5.6%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Telmo.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on San Telmo.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Telmo.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on San Telmo."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors San Telmo more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on San Telmo (\u2191 +5.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/13) supports the current market view on San Telmo."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 15.73,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -12.37,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Central Norte",
            "market_prob_pct": 47.54,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.36,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.01,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 15.73,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "San Telmo",
            "market_prob_pct": 19.44,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on San Telmo.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Central Norte (47.5%).",
          "San Telmo has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +5.6%, 10/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Central Norte, Market \u2192 Central Norte, Recent sharp money \u2192 San Telmo.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 20.45,
        "closing_odds": 4.89,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 20.45,
        "entry_odds": 4.89,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
        "move_pct_abs": 5.6,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on San Telmo (5.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.80 \u2192 3.54 \u2192 4.75",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
          "pick_team": "San Telmo",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.80"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.54"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.75"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.5",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/13 sportsbooks on San Telmo",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "San Telmo",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 46,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "pick_team": "San Telmo",
        "steam_score": 46,
        "steam_team_name": "San Telmo",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 15.7,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1932,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1932.webp",
      "away_team_name": "San Telmo",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1498599,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 1951,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1951.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Central Norte",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 129,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera Nacional",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 19:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Salta",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1528,
            "best_odd": 4.89,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.024,
            "ev": 0.0684,
            "implied_prob": 0.1944,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.2185
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4273,
            "best_odd": 2.88,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0144,
            "ev": -0.0906,
            "implied_prob": 0.3301,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.3157
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3665,
            "best_odd": 2.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0453,
            "ev": -0.1398,
            "implied_prob": 0.4754,
            "model_prob": 0.3518,
            "p_final": 0.4301
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.6,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.5,
          "edge_no": -0.1489,
          "edge_yes": 0.1489,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.272,
          "ev_yes": 0.3625,
          "implied_no": 0.6039,
          "implied_yes": 0.3961,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 3.1,
          "best_under_odd": 1.45,
          "edge_over": 0.1565,
          "edge_under": -0.1565,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.4942,
          "ev_under": -0.2489,
          "implied_over": 0.3255,
          "implied_under": 0.6745,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.4942,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.0
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0453,
          "ev": -0.1398,
          "implied_prob": 0.4754,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3518,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Central Norte"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1489,
          "ev": 0.3625,
          "implied_prob": 0.3961,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1565,
          "ev": 0.4942,
          "implied_prob": 0.3255,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1498599,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4942,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3518,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3518
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4942,
        "implied_prob": 0.3255,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.4942,
          "implied_prob": 0.3255,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "San Telmo",
        "home": "Central Norte"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.197563,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3625,
        "implied_prob": 0.3961,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.545,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1498599,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T19:29:04.825764+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Volver a Estadísticas
Primera Nacional Primera Nacional — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 18 7 6 61
2 Deportivo Morón 31 16 7 8 55
3 Godoy Cruz 31 15 8 8 53
4 Deportivo Madryn 31 13 11 7 50
5 Colón de Santa Fe 31 13 10 8 49
6 Almirante Brown 31 12 10 9 46
7 Estudiantes de Buenos Aires 31 12 9 10 45
8 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 10 12 9 42
9 Los Andes 31 9 13 9 40
10 Chaco For Ever 31 9 9 13 36
11 Defensores de Belgrano 31 8 12 11 36
12 Racing de Córdoba 31 9 9 13 36
13 San Telmo 31 8 10 13 34
14 All Boys 31 6 15 10 33
15 Central Norte 31 6 14 11 32
16 Atlético Mitre 31 6 14 11 32
17 San Miguel 31 6 13 12 31
18 Acassuso 31 7 8 16 29
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Deportivo Morón 31 49 31 +18 55
2 Deportivo Madryn 31 44 28 +16 50
3 Godoy Cruz 31 40 28 +12 53
4 Colón de Santa Fe 31 38 25 +13 49
5 Ferro Carril Oeste 31 36 25 +11 61
6 Estudiantes de Buenos Aires 31 29 26 +3 45
7 Chaco For Ever 31 28 31 -3 36
8 Racing de Córdoba 31 28 38 -10 36
9 Atlético Mitre 31 27 39 -12 32
10 Ciudad de Bolívar 31 26 28 -2 42
11 San Telmo 31 25 34 -9 34
12 San Miguel 31 25 36 -11 31
13 Los Andes 31 24 21 +3 40
14 Almirante Brown 31 23 18 +5 46
15 Defensores de Belgrano 31 23 27 -4 36
16 Acassuso 31 22 34 -12 29
17 Central Norte 31 19 28 -9 32
18 All Boys 31 17 26 -9 33