Derry City vs Drogheda United Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.0703,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.1612,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.7686,
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.62,
      "away_win_prob": 0.0703,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.0703,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.558,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.442,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1612,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.1612,
      "fair_odds_away": 14.23,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 14.23,
      "fair_odds_draw": 6.21,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 6.21,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.3,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.3,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.84,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7686,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.7686,
      "over_25_prob": 0.672,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.328
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Derry City or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Derry City",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Derry City"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.62,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Derry City",
      "confidence": 76.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Derry City",
        "edge": 0.1588,
        "edge_gap": 0.6079,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6101,
        "model_prob": 0.7688,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 7.0,
          "draw": 16.1,
          "home": 76.9
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Derry City"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.57
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.57,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Derry City Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.64,
        "market_odds": 1.57,
        "model_odds": 1.3,
        "overround": 4.4,
        "prob_edge": 13.2,
        "value_pct": 20.8,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 21,
        "away_score_rate": 46.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 23,
        "home_score_rate": 94.2,
        "no_prob": 55.8,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 55.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 44.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.62,
        "home_expected": 2.84,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 12.7
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
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            "away": 0,
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            "prob": 8.9
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 4,
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.9
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Derry City or Draw",
            "prob": 93.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Derry City or Drogheda United",
            "prob": 83.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Drogheda United",
            "prob": 23.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Derry City or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 93.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 16.1,
        "home_pct": 76.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Derry City"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 3.46,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 67.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 67.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
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        "under_prob": 32.8
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        "edge": 20.8,
        "implied_prob": 63.7,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Derry City Win",
        "model_prob": 76.9,
        "odds": 1.57
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Drogheda United",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Derry City",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 61.01,
          "gap_pp": 15.88,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 76.88
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 23.77,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 16.09
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          "closing_implied_pct": 48.84,
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          "closing": 1.57,
          "early": 1.57,
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          "closing": 4.03,
          "early": 4.03,
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          "implied_early_pct": 23.77,
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          "closing": 6.29,
          "early": 6.29,
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          "implied_early_pct": 15.23,
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        {
          "closing": 1.98,
          "early": 1.98,
          "implied_closing_pct": 48.84,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 1.89,
          "early": 1.89,
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          "implied_early_pct": 51.16,
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 18.4,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 12.7
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    },
    "home_xg": 2.84,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0717,
        "ev_available": true,
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          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 7.2,
          "text": "+7.2%"
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
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          "raw_pct": 7.2,
          "text": "+7.2%"
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        "sort_key": 10214.53,
        "tier": "best"
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    "market_intelligence": {
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        "alert_breadth": "8/14",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +4.5%",
        "alert_team": "Drogheda United",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 15.9,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 15.85,
        "hero_label": "Derry City",
        "market_prob_pct": 61.0,
        "market_team": "Derry City",
        "model_prob_pct": 76.9,
        "model_team": "Derry City",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 38,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
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          "edge_pp": 15.85,
          "fair_prob": 76.86,
          "label": "Derry City",
          "market_prob": 61.01,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.65,
          "fair_prob": 16.12,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 23.77,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.2,
          "fair_prob": 7.03,
          "label": "Drogheda United",
          "market_prob": 15.23,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 67.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 32.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 44.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 55.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 15.85,
        "fair_prob_pct": 76.86,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Derry City",
        "market_prob_pct": 61.01,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Drogheda United"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 15.85,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Strong favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Derry City",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 61.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 76.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Derry City, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 15.85,
        "hero_label": "Derry City",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Drogheda United odds lengthened \u2191 +4.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Drogheda United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Derry City.",
          "note": "Drift away from Drogheda United \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Derry City.",
            "However, Drogheda United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Drogheda United \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Derry City more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Drogheda United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 15.85,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 60.7 pp (at 76.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 60.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 76.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 15.85,
            "fair_prob_pct": 76.86,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Derry City",
            "market_prob_pct": 61.01,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -7.65,
            "fair_prob_pct": 16.12,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.77,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -8.2,
            "fair_prob_pct": 7.03,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Drogheda United",
            "market_prob_pct": 15.23,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Drogheda United \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Derry City (61.0%).",
          "Drogheda United has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +4.5%, 8/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Derry City, Market \u2192 Derry City, Recent sharp money \u2192 Drogheda United.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 63.69,
        "closing_odds": 1.57,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 63.69,
        "entry_odds": 1.57,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "8/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 5.75,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 4.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "SBO led repricing on Drogheda United (4.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "6.29 \u2192 4.60 \u2192 5.75",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 53m",
          "pick_team": "Drogheda United",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.29"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "5.75"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.3",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
        },
        "open_odds": 5.5,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Drogheda United",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "SBO",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 38,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/14",
        "current_odds": 5.75,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
        "open_odds": 5.5,
        "pick_team": "Drogheda United",
        "steam_score": 38,
        "steam_team_name": "Drogheda United",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 15.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3850,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3850.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Drogheda United",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
      "fixture_id": 1492722,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 1,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ireland",
      "home_team_id": 670,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/670.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Derry City",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 357,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-26 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Halftime",
      "status_short": "HT",
      "venue_city": "Derry",
      "venue_name": "The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1754,
            "best_odd": 6.29,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0144,
            "ev": -0.1327,
            "implied_prob": 0.1523,
            "model_prob": 0.0702,
            "p_final": 0.1379
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.177,
            "best_odd": 4.03,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0136,
            "ev": -0.0969,
            "implied_prob": 0.2377,
            "model_prob": 0.1609,
            "p_final": 0.2241
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4571,
            "best_odd": 1.57,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0726,
            "ev": 0.0717,
            "implied_prob": 0.6101,
            "model_prob": 0.7688,
            "p_final": 0.6826
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        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.46,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0717,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.442,
          "draw_prob": 0.1609,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7688,
          "over_prob": 0.672,
          "total_xg": 3.46,
          "under_prob": 0.328,
          "xg_diff": 2.22
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0726,
          "ev": 0.0717,
          "implied_prob": 0.6101,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.7688,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Derry City"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.558,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.672,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1492722,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0717,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.0702,
        "draw": 0.1609,
        "home": 0.7688
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Drogheda United",
        "home": "Derry City"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.066148,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0717,
        "implied_prob": 0.6101,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.7688,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Derry City",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1492722,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-26T19:49:28.478046+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}