AI correctly predicted the St Patrick's Athletic win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 St Patrick's Athletic St Patrick's Athletic ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers | 16.7% | 12.6% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 24.4% | 19.5% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
| St Patrick's Athletic | 58.9% | 67.9% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates St Patrick's Athletic's win probability at 67.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 58.9%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (St Patrick's Athletic win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on St Patrick's Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- St Patrick's Athletic attacking xG significantly stronger (1.77 vs 0.95)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced St Patrick's Athletic higher (68.0% vs model 58.9%, 9.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (St Patrick's Athletic win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sligo Rovers 16.7% · Draw 24.5% · St Patrick's Athletic 58.9%
- xG · Sligo Rovers 0.95 — St Patrick's Athletic 1.77
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sligo Rovers 7.60 · Draw 4.92 · St Patrick's Athletic 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Sligo Rovers 12.6% · Draw 19.5% · St Patrick's Athletic 67.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sligo Rovers 7.60 · Draw 4.92 · St Patrick's Athletic 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Sligo Rovers 12.6% · Draw 19.5% · St Patrick's Athletic 67.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result St Patrick's Athletic win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
54/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
St Patrick's Athletic win · Sligo Rovers 0–1 St Patrick's Athletic
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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}
},
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},
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},
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},
{
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"alert_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
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"model_prob_pct": 58.9,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 58.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (58.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.59 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.59 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.05,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.77,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.95,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.77,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.95 \u00b7 Away xG 1.77 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +31%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"steam_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 58.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (58.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.59 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.59 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sligo Rovers 0.95 xG vs St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 1.77 \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 58.9%",
"Market: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic ~67.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Sligo Rovers odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic projects stronger on expected goals (+0.82 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob": 16.67,
"label": "Sligo Rovers",
"market_prob": 12.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.98,
"fair_prob": 24.45,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob": 58.88,
"label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob": 67.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob": 51.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.38,
"fair_prob": 48.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.32,
"fair_prob": 52.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.32,
"fair_prob": 47.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.88,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 67.93,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic\u0027s win probability at 67.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 58.9%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 67.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 58.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sligo Rovers 0.95 xG vs St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 1.77 \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 58.9%",
"Market: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic ~67.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Sligo Rovers odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic projects stronger on expected goals (+0.82 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.05,
"hero_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Sligo Rovers odds lengthened \u2191 +15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices St Patrick\u0027s Athletic above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sligo Rovers has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Sligo Rovers."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 34.4 pp (at 58.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 34.4,
"max_prob_pct": 58.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices St Patrick\u0027s Athletic higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.07,
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 16.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sligo Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 12.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.98,
"edge_pp": 4.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.45,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.05,
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 67.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers St Patrick\u0027s Athletic (67.9%).",
"However, Sligo Rovers has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.4%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 70.92,
"closing_odds": 1.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 70.92,
"entry_odds": 1.41,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 124h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books lengthened Sligo Rovers together (15.4% drift, score 55) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.60",
"7.05",
"6.50"
],
"display": "8.00 \u2192 5.53 \u2192 7.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 124h 3m",
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
7.6,
7.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Sligo Rovers",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sligo Rovers",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "st-patrick-s-athl",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"away_team_id": 3843,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3843.webp",
"away_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"away_team_public_id": "2crmlSiChcZFaJ",
"away_team_slug": "st-patrick-s-athl",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492775,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"home_team_id": 3842,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3842.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"home_team_public_id": "0SAS0SbiUAKwrC",
"home_team_slug": "sligo-rovers",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sligo-rovers",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 18:45:00",
"public_id": "2dzNlDVj1de25f",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Sligo",
"venue_name": "The Showgrounds"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5184,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.047,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6793,
"draw": 0.1947,
"home": 0.126
},
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"p_final": 0.6323
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.185,
"best_odd": 4.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": 0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.1947,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6793,
"draw": 0.1947,
"home": 0.126
},
"model_prob": 0.2446,
"p_final": 0.2039
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1878,
"best_odd": 7.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": 0.0159,
"implied_prob": 0.126,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6793,
"draw": 0.1947,
"home": 0.126
},
"model_prob": 0.1668,
"p_final": 0.1337
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.1206,
"ev": -0.1701,
"implied_prob": 0.7092,
"model_prob": 0.5886
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.92,
"edge": 0.0414,
"ev": 0.2037,
"implied_prob": 0.2033,
"model_prob": 0.2446
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 7.6,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": 0.2674,
"implied_prob": 0.1316,
"model_prob": 0.1668
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5074,
"alpha_yes": 0.5074,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0232,
"edge_yes": 0.0232,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0889,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0972,
"ev_yes": -0.0011,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0554,
"implied_no": 0.5002,
"implied_yes": 0.4998,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.488,
"p_final_yes": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5235,
"alpha_under": 0.4759,
"best_over_odd": 1.66,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": -0.0638,
"edge_under": 0.0638,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1187,
"ev_under": 0.1247,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0006,
"implied_over": 0.5748,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5733,
"implied_under": 0.4252,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4267,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5235,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"p_final": 0.5407
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0006,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"p_final": 0.4564
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5407,
"p_final_under": 0.4564,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1247,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 58.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (58.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.59 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.59 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"draw_prob": 0.2446,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5886,
"over_prob": 0.511,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"under_prob": 0.489,
"xg_diff": 0.82
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.047,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.5007,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.523,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"p_final": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": -0.0011,
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.489,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5235,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"p_final": 0.5407
},
"p_final": 0.4564,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0006,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0006,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"p_final": 0.4564
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0638,
"ev": 0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492775,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1247,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5886,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.1668
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"home": "Sligo Rovers"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.060978,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.489,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492775,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T20:02:59.707050+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Irlanda — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
