AI correctly predicted the Derry City win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Derry City Derry City ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 50.5% | 59.5% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.2% | 21.9% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Galway United | 22.4% | 18.7% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Derry City's win probability at 59.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.5%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Derry City win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Derry City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Derry City attacking xG significantly stronger (1.53 vs 1.01)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Derry City higher (59.5% vs model 50.5%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Derry City win 1–0).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Derry City 50.5% · Draw 27.2% · Galway United 22.4%
- xG · Derry City 1.53 — Galway United 1.01
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.61 · Draw 4.38 · Galway United 5.12
- Implied 1X2 · Derry City 59.5% · Draw 21.9% · Galway United 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Derry City 1.61 · Draw 4.38 · Galway United 5.12
- Implied 1X2 · Derry City 59.5% · Draw 21.9% · Galway United 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Derry City win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
55/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.61
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Derry City win · Derry City 1–0 Galway United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.3%",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.5%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
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"model_lean": "Derry City",
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"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
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{
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"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
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},
{
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"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.99,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.01,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.53,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.53,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.53 \u00b7 Away xG 1.01 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"steam_team": "Galway United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1908,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1908,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Derry City 1.53 xG vs Galway United 1.01 \u2192 Derry City 50.5%",
"Market: Derry City ~59.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Galway United odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Derry City projects stronger on expected goals (+0.52 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob": 50.46,
"label": "Derry City",
"market_prob": 59.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.31,
"fair_prob": 27.16,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.68,
"fair_prob": 22.37,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob": 18.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.66,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.66,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob": 51.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.87,
"fair_prob": 48.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Derry City",
"market_prob_pct": 59.45,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Galway United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Derry City\u0027s win probability at 59.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 50.5%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Derry City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 59.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 50.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Derry City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Derry City 1.53 xG vs Galway United 1.01 \u2192 Derry City 50.5%",
"Market: Derry City ~59.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Galway United odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Derry City projects stronger on expected goals (+0.52 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.99,
"hero_label": "Derry City",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Galway United odds lengthened \u2191 +5.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Galway United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Derry City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Derry City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Galway United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Derry City above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Galway United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Galway United."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.3 pp (at 50.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.3,
"max_prob_pct": 50.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Derry City",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Derry City higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.99,
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Derry City",
"market_prob_pct": 59.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.31,
"edge_pp": 5.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.16,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.68,
"edge_pp": 3.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 18.69,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Derry City (59.5%).",
"Galway United odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.3%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Derry City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.11,
"closing_odds": 1.61,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.11,
"entry_odds": 1.61,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 96h 1m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Galway United (5.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.12",
"4.94",
"4.75"
],
"display": "5.00 \u2192 3.12 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 96h 1m",
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
5.12,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Galway United",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Galway United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Galway United",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "galway-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Galway United",
"away_team_id": 3851,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3851.webp",
"away_team_name": "Galway United",
"away_team_public_id": "3LCVkE9ArHBtjH",
"away_team_slug": "galway-united",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492772,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Derry City",
"home_team_id": 670,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/670.webp",
"home_team_name": "Derry City",
"home_team_public_id": "37GUkXcWaV0tGq",
"home_team_slug": "derry-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "derry-city",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0eWRoJ9iNyd323",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Delhi",
"venue_name": "Brandywell Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 5.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.1869,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1869,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.5945
},
"model_prob": 0.2236,
"p_final": 0.1939
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1841,
"best_odd": 4.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0,
"implied_prob": 0.2185,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1869,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.5945
},
"model_prob": 0.2716,
"p_final": 0.2283
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5193,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1869,
"draw": 0.2185,
"home": 0.5945
},
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"p_final": 0.5479
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.12,
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.1953,
"model_prob": 0.2236
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.38,
"edge": 0.0433,
"ev": 0.1896,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.2716
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.1163,
"ev": -0.1873,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.5048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4929,
"alpha_yes": 0.5421,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0387,
"edge_yes": -0.0387,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0449,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0345,
"ev_yes": -0.1108,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1131,
"implied_no": 0.4473,
"implied_yes": 0.5527,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4929,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"p_final": 0.4653
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5421,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0221,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5548,
"model_prob": 0.514,
"p_final": 0.5327
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4653,
"p_final_yes": 0.5327,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5156,
"alpha_under": 0.4687,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0966,
"edge_under": 0.0966,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2078,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1513,
"ev_under": 0.1908,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0341,
"implied_over": 0.5626,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5658,
"implied_under": 0.4374,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4342,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5156,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1513,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0468,
"ev": 0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.4342,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.481
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5143,
"p_final_under": 0.481,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1908,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1908,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1908,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1908,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1908,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Derry City at 50.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 59.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Derry City as the value side (50.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Derry City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Derry City).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.514,
"draw_prob": 0.2716,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5048,
"over_prob": 0.466,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"under_prob": 0.534,
"xg_diff": 0.52
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Derry City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.4452,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.486,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4929,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"p_final": 0.4653
},
"p_final": 0.4653,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0345,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5421,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0221,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5548,
"model_prob": 0.514,
"p_final": 0.5327
}
},
"edge": 0.0387,
"ev": 0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.4473,
"model_prob": 0.486,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0468,
"market_prob": 0.4342,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5156,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0515,
"ev": -0.1513,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.5143
},
"p_final": 0.481,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0341,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0468,
"ev": 0.0341,
"implied_prob": 0.4342,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.481
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0966,
"ev": 0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4374,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492772,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1908,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2236,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.5048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Galway United",
"home": "Derry City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089661,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1908,
"implied_prob": 0.4374,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1178,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5945,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5048,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6211180124223602,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1873,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492772,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T19:32:26.827273+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Irlanda — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
