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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Shelbourne Shelbourne ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 2-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 7.36,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.17,
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"fair_odds_home": 1.6,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.92,
"home_win_prob": 0.6246,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.511,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.489
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Shamrock Rovers",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Shelbourne",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Shamrock Rovers"
},
"away_xg": 0.8,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Shelbourne",
"confidence": 62.5,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Shelbourne",
"edge": 0.2719,
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"pick_type": "winner",
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Shelbourne"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.73
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.73,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Home",
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"value_rating": "strong_value"
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 55.1,
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"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 85.3,
"no_prob": 51.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.8,
"home_expected": 1.92,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.6
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Shelbourne or Draw",
"prob": 86.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers",
"prob": 76.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Shamrock Rovers",
"prob": 37.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Shelbourne or Draw",
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},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 13.6,
"draw_pct": 23.9,
"home_pct": 62.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Shelbourne"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.72,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"market": "Shelbourne Win",
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}
},
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"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Shelbourne",
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{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.47,
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"model_pct": 23.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.26,
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"model_pct": 13.58
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.88,
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"model_pct": 51.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.12,
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.16,
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},
{
"closing": 2.81,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
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{
"closing": 2.1,
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{
"closing": 1.78,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.92,
"homepage_pick": {
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"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Home Shelbourne",
"edge": 25.8,
"ev": 70.6,
"probability": 62.5
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 16.1,
"text": "+16.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
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},
"model_prob": 0.6246,
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"sort_key": 10294.54,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0833,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.3,
"text": "+8.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1247,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.5,
"text": "-12.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0833,
"over_prob": 51.1,
"sort_key": 10074.97,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 48.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0598,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1161,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.6,
"text": "-11.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0598,
"no_prob": 51.7,
"sort_key": 10053.82,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 27.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 27.19,
"hero_label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 35.3,
"market_team": "Shelbourne",
"model_prob_pct": 62.5,
"model_team": "Shelbourne",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 27.19,
"fair_prob": 62.46,
"label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob": 35.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.52,
"fair_prob": 23.95,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.67,
"fair_prob": 13.59,
"label": "Shamrock Rovers",
"market_prob": 34.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.4,
"fair_prob": 51.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.4,
"fair_prob": 48.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.92,
"fair_prob": 48.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.92,
"fair_prob": 51.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 27.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 62.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 35.27,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 27.19,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Shelbourne",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 35.3,
"model_prob_pct": 62.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Shelbourne, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 27.19,
"hero_label": "Shelbourne",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 27.19,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 38.5 pp (at 62.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 38.5,
"max_prob_pct": 62.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 27.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 62.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 35.27,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.47,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Shamrock Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 34.26,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Shelbourne (35.3%).",
"Model and market lean the same side on Shelbourne, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.63,
"closing_odds": 2.73,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.63,
"entry_odds": 2.73,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"steam_score": 17,
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 27.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 652,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/652.webp",
"away_team_name": "Shamrock Rovers",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492713,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_id": 3854,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3854.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Premier Division",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dublin",
"venue_name": "Tolka Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3104,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.2176,
"implied_prob": 0.3426,
"model_prob": 0.1358,
"p_final": 0.2784
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2707,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.0928,
"implied_prob": 0.3047,
"model_prob": 0.2396,
"p_final": 0.2871
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2665,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0725,
"ev": 0.1606,
"implied_prob": 0.3527,
"model_prob": 0.6246,
"p_final": 0.4251
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"edge_no": 0.0392,
"edge_yes": -0.0392,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0598,
"ev_yes": -0.1161,
"implied_no": 0.4778,
"implied_yes": 0.5222,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.79,
"edge_over": 0.054,
"edge_under": -0.054,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0833,
"ev_under": -0.1247,
"implied_over": 0.457,
"implied_under": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1606,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.483,
"draw_prob": 0.2396,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6246,
"over_prob": 0.511,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"under_prob": 0.489,
"xg_diff": 1.12
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0725,
"ev": 0.1606,
"implied_prob": 0.3527,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6246,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shelbourne"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0392,
"ev": 0.0598,
"implied_prob": 0.4778,
"model_prob": 0.517,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.054,
"ev": 0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.457,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492713,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1606,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1358,
"draw": 0.2396,
"home": 0.6246
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Shamrock Rovers",
"home": "Shelbourne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.120373,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1606,
"implied_prob": 0.3527,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6246,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shelbourne",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492713,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:59:07.475163+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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