Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Statistics & Analysis

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  "content_hash": "5fd769de97bdfc62945982218928820ef27c70d83d3df08d5ecc087d9afb9474",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.94,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2649,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3239,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.77,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.09,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.43,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.23,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4112,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.94,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Al-Nassr",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0007,
        "edge_gap": 0.0879,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4107,
        "model_prob": 0.4114,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 26.5,
          "draw": 32.3,
          "home": 41.1
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.32
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.32,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al-Nassr Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.44,
        "market_odds": 2.32,
        "model_odds": 2.43,
        "overround": 5.0,
        "prob_edge": -2.0,
        "value_pct": -4.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 14,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 60.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 17,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 70.8,
        "no_prob": 55.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 55.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 44.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.94,
        "home_expected": 1.23,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 14.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 11.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Al-Nassr or Draw",
            "prob": 73.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
            "prob": 67.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
            "prob": 58.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Al-Nassr or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 73.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 26.5,
        "draw_pct": 32.4,
        "home_pct": 41.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Al-Nassr"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.17,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.6,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.7,
        "over_prob": 36.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 63.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.17,
        "under_prob": 63.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 14.0,
        "implied_prob": 28.4,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 32.4,
        "odds": 3.52
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": {
        "best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
        "best_odds": 13.0,
        "edge": 6.4,
        "ev": 82.6,
        "label": "1-0",
        "probability": 14.0
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-0",
        "prob": 14.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.23,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.4207,
        "ev_under": 0.6595,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.6595,
        "over_prob": 36.9,
        "sort_key": 10743.55,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 63.1,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.5456,
        "ev_yes": -0.3504,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.5456,
        "no_prob": 55.2,
        "sort_key": 10491.04,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 44.8
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0465,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4107,
        "max_ev": 0.0041,
        "model_prob": 0.4114,
        "side_label": "Al-Nassr",
        "sort_key": 5203.28,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 822.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-0",
        "top_prob": 14.0
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2932,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2932.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "fixture_id": 1436194,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2939,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2939.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al-Nassr",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Pro League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-12 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4139,
            "best_odd": 2.99,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0221,
            "ev": -0.1134,
            "implied_prob": 0.3187,
            "model_prob": 0.2651,
            "p_final": 0.2965
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2762,
            "best_odd": 3.52,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0146,
            "ev": 0.0041,
            "implied_prob": 0.2707,
            "model_prob": 0.3235,
            "p_final": 0.2853
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4495,
            "best_odd": 2.32,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0003,
            "ev": -0.0465,
            "implied_prob": 0.4107,
            "model_prob": 0.4114,
            "p_final": 0.411
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.45,
          "edge_no": 0.2025,
          "edge_yes": -0.2025,
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          "ev_yes": -0.3504,
          "implied_no": 0.3495,
          "implied_yes": 0.6505,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.63,
          "edge_over": -0.255,
          "edge_under": 0.255,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.4207,
          "ev_under": 0.6595,
          "implied_over": 0.624,
          "implied_under": 0.376,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.17,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.6595,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
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          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.448,
          "draw_prob": 0.3235,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4114,
          "over_prob": 0.369,
          "total_xg": 2.17,
          "under_prob": 0.631,
          "xg_diff": 0.29
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0003,
          "ev": -0.0465,
          "implied_prob": 0.4107,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4114,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Al-Nassr"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2025,
          "ev": 0.5456,
          "implied_prob": 0.3495,
          "model_prob": 0.552,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.255,
          "ev": 0.6595,
          "implied_prob": 0.376,
          "model_prob": 0.631,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1436194,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.6595,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2651,
        "draw": 0.3235,
        "home": 0.4114
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.5456,
        "implied_prob": 0.3495,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.552,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Al-Hilal Saudi FC",
        "home": "Al-Nassr"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.416144,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.6595,
        "implied_prob": 0.376,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.631,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1436194,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-12T17:59:03.926640+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}