Al Najma vs Al-Hazm Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.95,
      "away_win_prob": 0.5535,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.245,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.81,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.08,
      "fair_odds_home": 4.96,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.12,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2016,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Al Najma or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Al-Hazm",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Al Najma"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.95,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Al-Hazm",
      "confidence": 55.3,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Al-Hazm",
        "edge": 0.0872,
        "edge_gap": 0.3076,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4657,
        "model_prob": 0.5529,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 55.3,
          "draw": 24.5,
          "home": 20.2
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "away",
        "selection_name": "Al-Hazm"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.01
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.01,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al-Hazm Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.15,
        "market_odds": 2.01,
        "model_odds": 1.81,
        "overround": 6.8,
        "prob_edge": 5.5,
        "value_pct": 11.0,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 11,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 85.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 67.4,
        "no_prob": 40.9,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 59.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 59.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.95,
        "home_expected": 1.12,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.1
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 8.8
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-3",
            "prob": 6.4
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Al Najma or Draw",
            "prob": 44.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al Najma or Al-Hazm",
            "prob": 75.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Al-Hazm",
            "prob": 79.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Al-Hazm",
        "pick_prob": 79.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 55.4,
        "draw_pct": 24.5,
        "home_pct": 20.2,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Al-Hazm"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.07,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "over_prob": 59.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.07,
        "under_prob": 40.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 11.4,
        "implied_prob": 49.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Al-Hazm Win",
        "model_prob": 55.4,
        "odds": 2.01
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.1
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.12,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0774,
        "ev_under": -0.1024,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0774,
        "over_prob": 59.2,
        "sort_key": 10219.66,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 40.8,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0046,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4657,
        "max_ev": 0.0046,
        "model_prob": 0.5529,
        "side_label": "Al-Hazm",
        "sort_key": 5203.68,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0389,
        "ev_yes": -0.013,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.013,
        "no_prob": 40.9,
        "sort_key": 1796.75,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 59.1
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 810.3,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.1
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2945,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2945.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Al-Hazm",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "fixture_id": 1436192,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2992,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2992.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al Najma",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Pro League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-07 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3911,
            "best_odd": 2.01,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0341,
            "ev": 0.0046,
            "implied_prob": 0.4657,
            "model_prob": 0.5529,
            "p_final": 0.4998
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2924,
            "best_odd": 3.57,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0049,
            "ev": -0.0816,
            "implied_prob": 0.2622,
            "model_prob": 0.2453,
            "p_final": 0.2573
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2684,
            "best_odd": 3.44,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0189,
            "ev": -0.1289,
            "implied_prob": 0.2721,
            "model_prob": 0.2018,
            "p_final": 0.2532
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": -0.021,
          "edge_yes": 0.021,
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          "ev_no": -0.0389,
          "ev_yes": -0.013,
          "implied_no": 0.43,
          "implied_yes": 0.57,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "implied_under": 0.4629,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 3.07,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
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        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.591,
          "draw_prob": 0.2453,
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          "over_prob": 0.592,
          "total_xg": 3.07,
          "under_prob": 0.408,
          "xg_diff": 0.83
        },
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
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          "implied_prob": 0.4657,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.5529,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Al-Hazm"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.021,
          "ev": -0.013,
          "implied_prob": 0.57,
          "model_prob": 0.591,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0549,
          "ev": 0.0774,
          "implied_prob": 0.5371,
          "model_prob": 0.592,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1436192,
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        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.5529,
        "draw": 0.2453,
        "home": 0.2018
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Al-Hazm",
        "home": "Al Najma"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.045821,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0774,
        "implied_prob": 0.5371,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.592,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1436192,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-07T16:59:13.526542+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}