Burgos vs Almeria Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.85,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1414,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2358,
      "fair_odds_away": 7.07,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.24,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.61,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.97,
      "home_win_prob": 0.6228,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Almeria",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Burgos",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Almeria"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.85,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Burgos",
      "confidence": 62.2,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Burgos",
        "edge": 0.2498,
        "edge_gap": 0.3859,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3723,
        "model_prob": 0.6221,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 14.2,
          "draw": 23.6,
          "home": 62.2
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Burgos"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.6
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.6,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Burgos Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.69,
        "market_odds": 2.6,
        "model_odds": 1.61,
        "overround": 3.3,
        "prob_edge": 23.7,
        "value_pct": 61.5,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 38,
        "away_score_rate": 57.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 15,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 38,
        "home_score_rate": 86.1,
        "no_prob": 49.4,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 50.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 50.6
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.85,
        "home_expected": 1.97,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 11.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 11.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Burgos or Draw",
            "prob": 85.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Burgos or Almeria",
            "prob": 76.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Almeria",
            "prob": 37.7
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Burgos or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 85.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 14.1,
        "draw_pct": 23.6,
        "home_pct": 62.3,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Burgos"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.82,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.1,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 53.5,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 53.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.82,
        "under_prob": 46.5
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 62.0,
        "implied_prob": 38.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Burgos Win",
        "model_prob": 62.3,
        "odds": 2.6
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": {
        "best_bookmaker": "Betano",
        "best_odds": 13.0,
        "edge": 3.9,
        "ev": 50.4,
        "label": "2-0",
        "probability": 11.6
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-0",
        "prob": 11.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.97,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1508,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3723,
        "max_ev": 0.1508,
        "model_prob": 0.6221,
        "side_label": "Burgos",
        "sort_key": 10285.72,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.1288,
        "ev_under": -0.1351,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.1288,
        "over_prob": 53.5,
        "sort_key": 10115.92,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 46.5,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0127,
        "ev_yes": -0.0892,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0127,
        "no_prob": 49.4,
        "sort_key": 5210.16,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 50.6
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 815.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-0",
        "top_prob": 11.7
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 723,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/723.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Almeria",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1392183,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 9580,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9580.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Burgos",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 141,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/141.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3249,
            "best_odd": 2.96,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0602,
            "ev": -0.2102,
            "implied_prob": 0.327,
            "model_prob": 0.1417,
            "p_final": 0.2668
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.271,
            "best_odd": 3.22,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0175,
            "ev": -0.0882,
            "implied_prob": 0.3006,
            "model_prob": 0.2362,
            "p_final": 0.2832
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2814,
            "best_odd": 2.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0703,
            "ev": 0.1508,
            "implied_prob": 0.3723,
            "model_prob": 0.6221,
            "p_final": 0.4426
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.05,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.8,
          "edge_no": 0.0282,
          "edge_yes": -0.0282,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0127,
          "ev_yes": -0.0892,
          "implied_no": 0.4658,
          "implied_yes": 0.5342,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.11,
          "best_under_odd": 1.86,
          "edge_over": 0.0669,
          "edge_under": -0.0669,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1288,
          "ev_under": -0.1351,
          "implied_over": 0.4681,
          "implied_under": 0.5319,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.82,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1508,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.506,
          "draw_prob": 0.2362,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6221,
          "over_prob": 0.535,
          "total_xg": 2.82,
          "under_prob": 0.465,
          "xg_diff": 1.12
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0703,
          "ev": 0.1508,
          "implied_prob": 0.3723,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6221,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Burgos"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0282,
          "ev": 0.0127,
          "implied_prob": 0.4658,
          "model_prob": 0.494,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0669,
          "ev": 0.1288,
          "implied_prob": 0.4681,
          "model_prob": 0.535,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1392183,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1508,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1417,
        "draw": 0.2362,
        "home": 0.6221
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1288,
        "implied_prob": 0.4681,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.535,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1288,
          "implied_prob": 0.4681,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.535,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Almeria",
        "home": "Burgos"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.112575,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1508,
        "implied_prob": 0.3723,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.6221,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Burgos",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1392183,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T16:00:59.728391+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}