Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 0.83,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1618,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2627,
      "fair_odds_away": 6.18,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.81,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.74,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.74,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5755,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Twente or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Twente"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.83,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Twente",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1299,
        "edge_gap": 0.3126,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7052,
        "model_prob": 0.5753,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 16.2,
          "draw": 26.3,
          "home": 57.5
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.36
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.36,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Twente Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.42,
        "market_odds": 1.36,
        "model_odds": 1.74,
        "overround": 4.3,
        "prob_edge": -16.1,
        "value_pct": -21.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 11,
        "away_failed_to_score": 8,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 56.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 82.4,
        "no_prob": 52.1,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 52.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 47.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.83,
        "home_expected": 1.74,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 13.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 11.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 7.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Twente or Draw",
            "prob": 83.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Twente or Sparta Rotterdam",
            "prob": 73.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Sparta Rotterdam",
            "prob": 42.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Twente or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 83.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 16.2,
        "draw_pct": 26.3,
        "home_pct": 57.6,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Twente"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.57,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.7,
        "over_prob": 47.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 52.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.57,
        "under_prob": 52.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 48.3,
        "implied_prob": 17.7,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 26.3,
        "odds": 5.64
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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        "best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
        "best_odds": 11.0,
        "edge": 4.2,
        "ev": 46.5,
        "label": "1-0",
        "probability": 13.3
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-0",
        "prob": 13.3
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.74,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3269,
        "ev_under": 0.5622,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.5622,
        "over_prob": 47.4,
        "sort_key": 10655.98,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 52.6,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1983,
        "ev_yes": -0.2001,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1983,
        "no_prob": 52.1,
        "sort_key": 10178.47,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 47.9
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1263,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7052,
        "max_ev": 0.0491,
        "model_prob": 0.5753,
        "side_label": "Twente",
        "sort_key": 5239.28,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
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        "sort_key": 819.9,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-0",
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 426,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/426.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Sparta Rotterdam",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
      "country_name": "Netherlands",
      "fixture_id": 1381163,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 415,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/415.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Twente",
      "league_country": "Netherlands",
      "league_id": 88,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
      "league_name": "Eredivisie",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 14:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
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          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1888,
            "best_odd": 7.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.007,
            "ev": 0.0132,
            "implied_prob": 0.1247,
            "model_prob": 0.162,
            "p_final": 0.1318
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1722,
            "best_odd": 5.64,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.016,
            "ev": 0.0491,
            "implied_prob": 0.1701,
            "model_prob": 0.2627,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4831,
            "best_odd": 1.36,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0628,
            "ev": -0.1263,
            "implied_prob": 0.7052,
            "model_prob": 0.5753,
            "p_final": 0.6425
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.3,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": 0.1017,
          "edge_yes": -0.1017,
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          "ev_yes": -0.2001,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5807,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "edge_under": 0.2012,
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          "implied_over": 0.6752,
          "implied_under": 0.3248,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.57,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.5622,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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        "score": 7.5
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "active": false,
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        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2627,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5753,
          "over_prob": 0.474,
          "total_xg": 2.57,
          "under_prob": 0.526,
          "xg_diff": 0.91
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0491,
          "implied_prob": 0.1701,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2627,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.5753,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Twente"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1017,
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          "implied_prob": 0.4193,
          "model_prob": 0.521,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2012,
          "ev": 0.5622,
          "implied_prob": 0.3248,
          "model_prob": 0.526,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1381163,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.5622,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.162,
        "draw": 0.2627,
        "home": 0.5753
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1983,
        "implied_prob": 0.4193,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.521,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "risk_band": "strong",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Sparta Rotterdam",
        "home": "Twente"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.295717,
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.526,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1381163,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T14:44:19.239814+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}