Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Feyenoord Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 46.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- —
- Validación
- Pendiente
Resumen:
El modelo se inclina hacia el {equipo}, con una modesta separación de otros resultados. Monitoree el movimiento del mercado antes del inicio.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Feyenoord Feyenoord ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.4657,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2755,
"fair_odds_away": 2.15,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.63,
"fair_odds_home": 3.86,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.17,
"home_win_prob": 0.2589,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Feyenoord",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Feyenoord"
},
"away_xg": 1.63,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Feyenoord",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0683,
"edge_gap": 0.1897,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5336,
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"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 27.6,
"home": 25.9
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.8
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Feyenoord Win",
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"label": "Away",
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"overround": 4.1,
"prob_edge": -9.0,
"value_pct": -16.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 80.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 69.0,
"no_prob": 43.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
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},
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"home_expected": 1.17,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
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},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "PEC Zwolle or Draw",
"prob": 53.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "PEC Zwolle or Feyenoord",
"prob": 72.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 74.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 27.6,
"home_pct": 25.9,
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.8,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 53.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 53.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.8,
"under_prob": 46.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 15.6,
"implied_prob": 23.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 27.6,
"odds": 4.19
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "PEC Zwolle",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.92,
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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{
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.19,
"early": 4.19,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
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},
{
"closing": 1.42,
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{
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}
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}
},
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"most_likely": {
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}
},
"home_xg": 1.17,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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},
{
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"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Feyenoord",
"sort_key": 2199.728,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 209,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/209.webp",
"away_team_name": "Feyenoord",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1381172,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 193,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/193.webp",
"home_team_name": "PEC Zwolle",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 12:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"model_prob": 0.4653,
"p_final": 0.4968
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1861,
"best_odd": 4.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0034,
"implied_prob": 0.2292,
"model_prob": 0.2756,
"p_final": 0.2379
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1934,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.2372,
"model_prob": 0.2592,
"p_final": 0.2414
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"edge_no": 0.0937,
"edge_yes": -0.0937,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2384,
"ev_yes": -0.1906,
"implied_no": 0.3363,
"implied_yes": 0.6637,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 3.1,
"edge_over": -0.1473,
"edge_under": 0.1463,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2368,
"ev_under": 0.4539,
"implied_over": 0.6773,
"implied_under": 0.3227,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.8,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4539,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2756,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4653,
"over_prob": 0.53,
"total_xg": 2.8,
"under_prob": 0.469,
"xg_diff": 0.46
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.5336,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4653,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Feyenoord"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0937,
"ev": 0.2384,
"implied_prob": 0.3363,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1463,
"ev": 0.4539,
"implied_prob": 0.3227,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1381172,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4539,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4653,
"draw": 0.2756,
"home": 0.2592
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.2384,
"implied_prob": 0.3363,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2384,
"implied_prob": 0.3363,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Feyenoord",
"home": "PEC Zwolle"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.212879,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4539,
"implied_prob": 0.3227,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1381172,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T12:29:04.805953+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Eredivisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 84 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 65 |
| 3 | NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 59 |
| 4 | Twente | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 58 |
| 5 | Ajax | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 56 |
| 6 | Utrecht | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 53 |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 52 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 51 |
| 9 | Groningen | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 48 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 43 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 39 |
| 12 | GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 38 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 |
| 14 | Telstar | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 32 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 29 |
| 18 | Heracles | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 84 |
| 2 | NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 59 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 65 |
| 4 | Ajax | 34 | 62 | 41 | +21 | 56 |
| 5 | Twente | 34 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 58 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 52 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 34 | 57 | 53 | +4 | 51 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 34 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 53 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 38 |
| 10 | Groningen | 34 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 48 |
| 11 | Telstar | 34 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 37 |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 39 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 37 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 34 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 38 |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 43 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 34 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 32 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 34 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
| 18 | Heracles | 34 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 69.7 | 37.3 | +32.4 | 84 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 67.1 | 37.3 | +29.8 | 65 |
| 3 | Twente | 34 | 60.3 | 36.3 | +24.0 | 58 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 61.9 | 42.5 | +19.4 | 52 |
| 5 | NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 61.6 | 45.9 | +15.7 | 59 |
| 6 | Groningen | 34 | 58.0 | 46.2 | +11.8 | 48 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 34 | 58.3 | 49.4 | +8.9 | 51 |
| 8 | Ajax | 34 | 53.4 | 45.6 | +7.8 | 56 |
| 9 | Utrecht | 34 | 50.0 | 44.4 | +5.6 | 53 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 41.8 | 48.0 | -6.2 | 43 |
| 11 | NAC Breda | 34 | 39.4 | 50.3 | -10.9 | 29 |
| 12 | Telstar | 34 | 47.3 | 58.3 | -11.0 | 37 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 34 | 44.1 | 58.3 | -14.2 | 38 |
| 14 | Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39.9 | 58.5 | -18.6 | 39 |
| 15 | GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 41.7 | 62.4 | -20.7 | 38 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 36.2 | 58.6 | -22.4 | 37 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 34 | 34.5 | 59.3 | -24.8 | 32 |
| 18 | Heracles | 34 | 39.1 | 65.7 | -26.6 | 19 |