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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4ee45bd01076619a3a3034b96f2ac29314cb1216741a2c6e668a69f7122bdc94",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.01,
"away_win_prob": 0.5441,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2402,
"fair_odds_away": 1.84,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.16,
"fair_odds_home": 4.64,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"home_win_prob": 0.2157,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or PSV Eindhoven",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"away_xg": 2.01,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0177,
"edge_gap": 0.3033,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.5438,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 54.4,
"draw": 24.1,
"home": 21.6
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.71
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.71,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "PSV Eindhoven Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.78,
"market_odds": 1.71,
"model_odds": 1.84,
"overround": 4.2,
"prob_edge": -4.1,
"value_pct": -7.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 86.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 70.5,
"no_prob": 37.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 62.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.01,
"home_expected": 1.22,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "GO Ahead Eagles or Draw",
"prob": 45.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "GO Ahead Eagles or PSV Eindhoven",
"prob": 76.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or PSV Eindhoven",
"prob": 78.4
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or PSV Eindhoven",
"pick_prob": 78.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 54.4,
"draw_pct": 24.0,
"home_pct": 21.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.23,
"away_avg_scored": 2.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.23,
"under_prob": 37.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 11.8,
"implied_prob": 21.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 24.0,
"odds": 4.66
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
}
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1862,
"ev_under": 0.4212,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4212,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"sort_key": 10529.08,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 37.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2818,
"ev_yes": -0.1527,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2818,
"no_prob": 37.7,
"sort_key": 10253.62,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 62.3
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0575,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"max_ev": -0.0094,
"model_prob": 0.5438,
"side_label": "PSV Eindhoven",
"sort_key": 1797.65,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 197,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/197.webp",
"away_team_name": "PSV Eindhoven",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1381158,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 410,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/410.webp",
"home_team_name": "GO Ahead Eagles",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 14:45:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5841,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.5438,
"p_final": 0.5512
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1897,
"best_odd": 4.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0094,
"implied_prob": 0.206,
"model_prob": 0.2405,
"p_final": 0.2126
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 4.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.2325,
"model_prob": 0.2157,
"p_final": 0.2292
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"edge_no": 0.0852,
"edge_yes": -0.0852,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2818,
"ev_yes": -0.1527,
"implied_no": 0.2918,
"implied_yes": 0.7082,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 3.8,
"edge_over": -0.1141,
"edge_under": 0.1141,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1862,
"ev_under": 0.4212,
"implied_over": 0.7401,
"implied_under": 0.2599,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4212,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.623,
"draw_prob": 0.2405,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5438,
"over_prob": 0.626,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"under_prob": 0.374,
"xg_diff": 0.79
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5438,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "PSV Eindhoven"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0852,
"ev": 0.2818,
"implied_prob": 0.2918,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1141,
"ev": 0.4212,
"implied_prob": 0.2599,
"model_prob": 0.374,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1381158,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4212,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5438,
"draw": 0.2405,
"home": 0.2157
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "PSV Eindhoven",
"home": "GO Ahead Eagles"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.149652,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4212,
"implied_prob": 0.2599,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.374,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1381158,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T14:44:10.564822+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Eredivisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 78 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 61 |
| 3 | NEC Nijmegen | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| 4 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 55 |
| 5 | Twente | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 55 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| 10 | Groningen | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 11 | GO Ahead Eagles | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 13 | Fortuna Sittard | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 36 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 34 |
| 15 | Telstar | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 31 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 31 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 |
| 18 | Heracles | 32 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 32 | 92 | 43 | +49 | 78 |
| 2 | NEC Nijmegen | 32 | 74 | 50 | +24 | 56 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 32 | 67 | 43 | +24 | 61 |
| 4 | Ajax | 32 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 55 |
| 5 | Heerenveen | 32 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 50 |
| 6 | Twente | 32 | 54 | 35 | +19 | 55 |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 32 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 50 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 32 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 38 |
| 9 | Utrecht | 32 | 51 | 41 | +10 | 47 |
| 10 | Fortuna Sittard | 32 | 46 | 59 | -13 | 36 |
| 11 | Groningen | 32 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 42 |
| 12 | Telstar | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 31 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 42 | 66 | -24 | 37 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 32 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 34 |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 32 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 43 |
| 16 | Heracles | 32 | 34 | 80 | -46 | 19 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 32 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 31 |
| 18 | NAC Breda | 32 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 25 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 32 | 67.2 | 35.9 | +31.3 | 78 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 63.9 | 36.5 | +27.4 | 61 |
| 3 | Twente | 32 | 58.9 | 33.7 | +25.2 | 55 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 32 | 60.5 | 40.4 | +20.1 | 50 |
| 5 | NEC Nijmegen | 32 | 57.1 | 45.6 | +11.5 | 56 |
| 6 | Groningen | 32 | 56.8 | 45.6 | +11.2 | 42 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 32 | 56.7 | 47.5 | +9.2 | 50 |
| 8 | Ajax | 32 | 51.6 | 44.0 | +7.6 | 55 |
| 9 | Utrecht | 32 | 47.9 | 43.9 | +4.0 | 47 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 32 | 40.0 | 47.1 | -7.1 | 43 |
| 11 | Telstar | 32 | 45.9 | 57.2 | -11.3 | 31 |
| 12 | NAC Breda | 32 | 37.3 | 48.9 | -11.6 | 25 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 32 | 43.2 | 56.6 | -13.4 | 34 |
| 14 | GO Ahead Eagles | 32 | 41.4 | 57.9 | -16.5 | 38 |
| 15 | Fortuna Sittard | 32 | 39.4 | 56.4 | -17.0 | 36 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 35.5 | 55.4 | -19.9 | 37 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 32 | 33.4 | 57.9 | -24.5 | 31 |
| 18 | Heracles | 32 | 38.5 | 64.5 | -26.0 | 19 |