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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Excelsior Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1 1-1 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "de1fe38aa3f91cf5008d927eeeb059ee9b87cf396aee0f47d70fa18577be18dd",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.02,
"away_win_prob": 0.1682,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2329,
"fair_odds_away": 5.94,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.29,
"fair_odds_home": 1.67,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.05,
"home_win_prob": 0.5988,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Excelsior or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Excelsior",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Excelsior"
},
"away_xg": 1.02,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Excelsior",
"confidence": 59.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Excelsior",
"edge": 0.0545,
"edge_gap": 0.3656,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.5987,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 16.8,
"draw": 23.3,
"home": 59.9
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Excelsior"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.76
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.76,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Excelsior Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.84,
"market_odds": 1.76,
"model_odds": 1.67,
"overround": 4.4,
"prob_edge": 3.1,
"value_pct": 5.4,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 63.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 87.1,
"no_prob": 43.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 57.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.02,
"home_expected": 2.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Excelsior or Draw",
"prob": 83.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Excelsior or FC Volendam",
"prob": 76.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC Volendam",
"prob": 40.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Excelsior or Draw",
"pick_prob": 83.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 16.8,
"draw_pct": 23.3,
"home_pct": 59.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Excelsior"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.07,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 59.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.07,
"under_prob": 40.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.4,
"implied_prob": 56.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Excelsior Win",
"model_prob": 59.9,
"odds": 1.76
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
}
},
"home_xg": 2.05,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.032,
"ev_yes": -0.0766,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.032,
"no_prob": 43.0,
"sort_key": 10028.8,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.0
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0105,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"max_ev": 0.0105,
"model_prob": 0.5987,
"side_label": "Excelsior",
"sort_key": 5208.4,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0114,
"ev_under": -0.0004,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0004,
"over_prob": 59.2,
"sort_key": 4049.944,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 40.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 416,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/416.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Volendam",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1381156,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 196,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/196.webp",
"home_team_name": "Excelsior",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 14:45:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1925,
"best_odd": 4.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0048,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.1935,
"model_prob": 0.1683,
"p_final": 0.1886
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2868,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.2624,
"model_prob": 0.233,
"p_final": 0.254
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5509,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"model_prob": 0.5987,
"p_final": 0.5742
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": 0.0231,
"edge_yes": -0.0231,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.032,
"ev_yes": -0.0766,
"implied_no": 0.4069,
"implied_yes": 0.5931,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"edge_over": 0.0076,
"edge_under": -0.0076,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0114,
"ev_under": -0.0004,
"implied_over": 0.5844,
"implied_under": 0.4156,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.07,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.032,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [],
"breakdown_resolved": [],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.57,
"draw_prob": 0.233,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5987,
"over_prob": 0.592,
"total_xg": 3.07,
"under_prob": 0.408,
"xg_diff": 1.03
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.032,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.43,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.5441,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5987,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Excelsior"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": 0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0004,
"implied_prob": 0.4156,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1381156,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.032,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1683,
"draw": 0.233,
"home": 0.5987
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Volendam",
"home": "Excelsior"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1381156,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T14:44:08.854408+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Eredivisie — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 33 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 81 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 62 |
| 3 | Twente | 33 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 58 |
| 4 | NEC Nijmegen | 33 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 56 |
| 5 | Ajax | 33 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 55 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 51 |
| 7 | Utrecht | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 50 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 50 |
| 9 | Groningen | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 45 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 43 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 39 |
| 12 | GO Ahead Eagles | 33 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 38 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 35 |
| 15 | Telstar | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 34 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 32 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 28 |
| 18 | Heracles | 33 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 33 | 96 | 44 | +52 | 81 |
| 2 | NEC Nijmegen | 33 | 75 | 52 | +23 | 56 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 33 | 68 | 44 | +24 | 62 |
| 4 | Ajax | 33 | 62 | 41 | +21 | 55 |
| 5 | Twente | 33 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 58 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 33 | 57 | 53 | +4 | 50 |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 51 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 33 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 50 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 33 | 53 | 51 | +2 | 38 |
| 10 | Fortuna Sittard | 33 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 39 |
| 11 | Groningen | 33 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 45 |
| 12 | Telstar | 33 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 34 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 37 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 33 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 35 |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 33 | 38 | 59 | -21 | 43 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 33 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 32 |
| 17 | Heracles | 33 | 34 | 83 | -49 | 19 |
| 18 | NAC Breda | 33 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 33 | 67.2 | 35.9 | +31.3 | 81 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 63.9 | 36.5 | +27.4 | 62 |
| 3 | Twente | 33 | 58.9 | 33.7 | +25.2 | 58 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 60.5 | 40.4 | +20.1 | 51 |
| 5 | NEC Nijmegen | 33 | 57.1 | 45.6 | +11.5 | 56 |
| 6 | Groningen | 33 | 56.8 | 45.6 | +11.2 | 45 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 33 | 56.7 | 47.5 | +9.2 | 50 |
| 8 | Ajax | 33 | 51.6 | 44.0 | +7.6 | 55 |
| 9 | Utrecht | 33 | 47.9 | 43.9 | +4.0 | 50 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 33 | 40.0 | 47.1 | -7.1 | 43 |
| 11 | Telstar | 33 | 45.9 | 57.2 | -11.3 | 34 |
| 12 | NAC Breda | 33 | 37.3 | 48.9 | -11.6 | 28 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 33 | 43.2 | 56.6 | -13.4 | 35 |
| 14 | GO Ahead Eagles | 33 | 41.4 | 57.9 | -16.5 | 38 |
| 15 | Fortuna Sittard | 33 | 39.4 | 56.4 | -17.0 | 39 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 35.5 | 55.4 | -19.9 | 37 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 33 | 33.4 | 57.9 | -24.5 | 32 |
| 18 | Heracles | 33 | 38.5 | 64.5 | -26.0 | 19 |
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