Market Movements - Early Sharp Moves
Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.
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| Match(54) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein UEFA Nations League · Thu 16:00 | Draw | 6.0 |
8.0
kickoff in 29h 14m |
↑ +33.3%
6.0
8.0
🐢 Slow drift over 36h 1m 10.00 → 5.20 → 8.00 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
5/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +33.3%
Betano
↑ +30.8%
William Hill
↑ +8.3%
BetVictor
↑ +7.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +6.8%
|
Steam Score:
65
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Draw (33.3%, 5/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Guinea vs Kenya Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Thu 16:00 | Kenya | 5.75 |
4.5
since pub · 8h 3m |
↓ -21.7%
5.75
4.5
↔ Gradual move over 8h 3m 6.00 → 4.50 → 4.50 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
5/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -21.7%
Betano
↓ -11.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -6.7%
Marathonbet
↓ -2.5%
1xBet
↓ -2.0%
|
Steam Score:
80
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +19/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Kenya (21.7%, 5/8) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Greece vs Netherlands UEFA Nations League · Thu 18:45 | Netherlands | 1.85 |
2.1
kickoff in 31h 59m |
↑ +13.5%
1.85
2.1
🐢 Slow drift over 55h 54m 2.15 → 1.75 → 2.10 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
9/9
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +17.1%
William Hill
↑ +16.7%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +13.5%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +8.0%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +7.7%
1xBet
↑ +7.5%
Marathonbet
↑ +7.1%
Betano
↑ +6.4%
SBO Sharp
↑ +5.0%
|
Steam Score:
58
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +30/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Highest consensus move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Netherlands (13.5%, 9/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Argentina vs Bolivia Friendlies · Thu 00:00 | Bolivia | 26.0 |
29.0
kickoff in 13h 14m |
↑ +11.5%
26.0
29.0
🐢 Slow drift over 25h 47m 38.00 → 14.44 → 29.00 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
6/9
Books moving same direction
William Hill
↑ +47.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +35.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +21.4%
SBO Sharp
↑ +13.3%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +11.5%
BetVictor
↑ +4.5%
|
Steam Score:
48
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +25/45
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Bolivia (11.5%, 6/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Austria Wien W vs Inter Milano W UEFA Champions League Women · Thu 16:45 | Austria Wien W | 4.5 |
4.0
kickoff in 29h 59m |
↓ -11.1%
4.5
4.0
🐢 Slow drift over 48h 59m 4.80 → 3.86 → 4.00 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
4/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -11.1%
William Hill
↓ -7.6%
BetVictor
↓ -4.2%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -4.0%
|
Steam Score:
53
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +24/45
Book synchronization: +15/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Austria Wien W (11.1%, 4/8) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights USL Championship · Thu 02:00 | Las Vegas Lights | 5.0 |
4.5
kickoff in 15h 14m |
↓ -10.0%
5.0
4.5
🐢 Slow drift over 49h 48m 5.59 → 4.50 → 4.50 |
📈 Steam | Bet365 |
6/8
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↓ -10.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -10.0%
William Hill
↓ -8.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -7.7%
Marathonbet
↓ -7.5%
Betano
↓ -7.0%
|
Steam Score:
60
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +22/45
Book synchronization: +22/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Las Vegas Lights (10.0%, 6/8) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Curaçao vs Trinidad and Tobago CONCACAF Nations League · Thu 22:00 | Trinidad and Tobago | 3.6 |
3.9
since pub · 8h 14m |
↑ +8.3%
3.6
3.9
↔ Gradual move over 8h 14m 4.75 → 3.60 → 3.90 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/8
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +9.7%
BetVictor
↑ +9.5%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +8.3%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +2.9%
1xBet
↑ +2.2%
Marathonbet
↑ +2.2%
|
Steam Score:
49
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +18/45
Book synchronization: +22/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Trinidad and Tobago (8.3%, 6/8) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Atletico Nacional vs Junior Primera A · Thu 01:00 | Draw | 4.0 |
4.33
kickoff in 14h 14m |
↑ +8.3%
4.0
4.33
🐢 Slow drift over 56h 2m 4.89 → 3.68 → 4.33 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
6/9
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +13.7%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +8.3%
Betano
↑ +8.1%
BetVictor
↑ +5.6%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +5.2%
SBO Sharp
↑ +3.0%
|
Steam Score:
36
C
Limited conviction
Modest lengthening — treat as drift tracking rather than steam. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +18/45
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Draw (8.3%, 6/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Malta vs Gibraltar UEFA Nations League · Thu 18:45 | Gibraltar | 12.0 |
13.0
kickoff in 31h 59m |
↑ +8.3%
12.0
13.0
🐢 Slow drift over 36h 1m 13.00 → 7.43 → 13.00 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: SBO |
6/9
Books moving same direction
SBO Sharp
↑ +9.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +8.3%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +5.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +4.8%
1xBet
↑ +4.1%
Marathonbet
↑ +4.1%
|
Steam Score:
41
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +18/45
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Gibraltar (8.3%, 6/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| FAS vs Isidro Metapán Primera Division · Thu 02:00 | FAS | 1.8 |
2.05
since pub · 16h 2m |
↑ +13.9%
1.8
2.05
🐢 Slow drift over 16h 2m 2.20 → 1.80 → 2.05 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
2/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +13.9%
1xBet
↑ +2.0%
|
Steam Score:
44
B
Moderate sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +31/45
Book synchronization: +9/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on FAS (13.9%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Israel vs Kosovo UEFA Nations League · Thu 18:45 | Kosovo | 2.0 |
2.2
kickoff in 31h 59m |
↑ +10.0%
2.0
2.2
🐢 Slow drift over 51h 55m 2.39 → 2.00 → 2.20 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
1/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +10.0%
|
Steam Score:
28
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +22/45
Book synchronization: +3/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Kosovo (10.0%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria UEFA Nations League · Thu 18:45 | Rep. Of Ireland | 3.2 |
3.5
kickoff in 31h 59m |
↑ +9.4%
3.2
3.5
🐢 Slow drift over 55h 54m 3.60 → 2.90 → 3.50 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
4/9
Books moving same direction
William Hill
↑ +13.8%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +12.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +9.4%
Betano
↑ +7.8%
|
Steam Score:
43
B
Moderate sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +21/45
Book synchronization: +13/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on Rep. Of Ireland (9.4%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Envigado vs Orsomarso Primera B · Thu 20:30 | Orsomarso | 5.75 |
5.25
kickoff in 33h 44m |
↓ -8.7%
5.75
5.25
🐢 Slow drift over 38h 24m 5.75 → 4.65 → 5.25 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
1/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -8.7%
|
Steam Score:
26
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +19/45
Book synchronization: +4/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Orsomarso (8.7%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Denmark vs Portugal UEFA Nations League · Thu 18:45 | Draw | 3.5 |
3.7
kickoff in 31h 59m |
↑ +5.7%
3.5
3.7
🐢 Slow drift over 55h 54m 3.77 → 3.16 → 3.70 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
5/9
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +6.1%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +5.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +4.7%
1xBet
↑ +2.2%
Marathonbet
↑ +2.2%
|
Steam Score:
40
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +12/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Draw (5.7%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United USL Championship · Thu 00:00 | New Mexico United | 3.75 |
3.6
kickoff in 13h 14m |
↓ -4.0%
3.75
3.6
🐢 Slow drift over 49h 48m 3.75 → 3.25 → 3.60 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
7/7
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↓ -8.3%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -8.2%
Marathonbet
↓ -7.4%
William Hill
↓ -7.1%
1xBet
↓ -5.0%
Betano
↓ -4.2%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -4.0%
|
Steam Score:
50
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +9/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on New Mexico United (4.0%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Germany vs Serbia UEFA Nations League · Thu 18:45 | Serbia | 1.5 |
12.0
kickoff in 31h 59m |
↑ +700.0%
1.5
12.0
🐢 Slow drift over 115h 47m 12.80 → 1.50 → 12.00 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
8/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +700.0%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +41.2%
William Hill
↑ +37.5%
BetVictor
↑ +31.2%
1xBet
↑ +30.6%
Marathonbet
↑ +24.4%
Betano
↑ +23.1%
SBO Sharp
↑ +2.4%
|
Steam Score:
71
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +27/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 8/9 books lengthened Serbia together (700.0% drift, score 71) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Wales vs Norway UEFA Nations League · Thu 18:45 | Wales | 3.7 |
6.25
kickoff in 31h 59m |
↑ +68.9%
3.7
6.25
🐢 Slow drift over 55h 54m 6.25 → 3.30 → 6.25 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
9/9
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +71.4%
BetVictor
↑ +69.1%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +68.9%
William Hill
↑ +51.5%
Betano
↑ +46.8%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +16.4%
1xBet
↑ +14.2%
Marathonbet
↑ +14.2%
SBO Sharp
↑ +13.5%
|
Steam Score:
79
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 10% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 9/9 books lengthened Wales together (68.9% drift, score 79) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| British Virgin Islands vs Montserrat CONCACAF Nations League · Thu 19:00 | British Virgin Islands | 6.0 |
8.5
since pub · 4h 6m |
↑ +41.7%
6.0
8.5
↔ Gradual move over 4h 6m 13.00 → 6.00 → 8.50 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
6/8
Books moving same direction
William Hill
↑ +52.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +41.7%
Betano
↑ +29.4%
1xBet
↑ +8.4%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +8.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +8.3%
|
Steam Score:
82
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +22/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 10% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 6/8 books lengthened British Virgin Islands together (41.7% drift, score 82) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Alianza vs Platense Primera Division · Thu 01:00 | Platense | 6.25 |
3.9
since pub · 12h 3m |
↓ -37.6%
6.25
3.9
🐢 Slow drift over 12h 3m 6.25 → 3.90 → 3.90 |
🔥 Strong steam | Bet365 |
6/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -37.6%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -11.6%
1xBet
↓ -8.8%
Marathonbet
↓ -5.9%
William Hill
↓ -4.8%
Betano
↓ -4.5%
|
Steam Score:
95
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +18/18
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest underdog steam | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | 6/7 books synchronized on Platense (37.6% steam, score 95) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks. |
| Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest Copa de la División Profesional · Thu 00:30 | The Strongest | 2.55 |
3.4
since pub · 16h 10m |
↑ +33.3%
2.55
3.4
🐢 Slow drift over 16h 10m 3.88 → 2.40 → 3.40 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
5/7
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +51.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +40.0%
Marathonbet
↑ +39.1%
Betano
↑ +34.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +33.3%
|
Steam Score:
80
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 10% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 5/7 books lengthened The Strongest together (33.3% drift, score 80) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Dominica vs Guyana CONCACAF Nations League · Thu 21:00 | Dominica | 7.5 |
9.0
since pub · 8h 14m |
↑ +20.0%
7.5
9.0
↔ Gradual move over 8h 14m 12.00 → 7.50 → 9.00 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
8/8
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +27.0%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +26.3%
William Hill
↑ +26.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +23.7%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +20.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +17.5%
Betano
↑ +15.6%
BetVictor
↑ +14.3%
|
Steam Score:
88
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +44/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 8/8 books lengthened Dominica together (20.0% drift, score 88) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| US Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin CONCACAF Nations League · Thu 20:00 | US Virgin Islands | 6.5 |
5.25
since pub · 8h 14m |
↓ -19.2%
6.5
5.25
↔ Gradual move over 8h 14m 10.25 → 5.25 → 5.25 |
🔥 Strong steam | Bet365 |
5/7
Books moving same direction
William Hill
↓ -27.8%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -19.2%
Marathonbet
↓ -11.2%
1xBet
↓ -10.3%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -5.9%
|
Steam Score:
88
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +42/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +18/18
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | 5/7 books synchronized on US Virgin Islands (19.2% steam, score 88) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks. |
| North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Thu 16:00 | North Macedonia U21 | 2.3 |
2.7
since pub · 3h 45m |
↑ +17.4%
2.3
2.7
📈 Active repricing over 3h 45m 2.77 → 2.25 → 2.70 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
5/6
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +19.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +17.4%
William Hill
↑ +16.4%
Marathonbet
↑ +15.8%
1xBet
↑ +15.4%
|
Steam Score:
77
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +38/45
Book synchronization: +25/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Fastest repricing | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 5/6 books lengthened North Macedonia U21 together (17.4% drift, score 77) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Athletic Club vs Sport Recife Serie B · Thu 23:30 | Athletic Club | 2.45 |
2.6
kickoff in 36h 44m |
↑ +6.1%
2.45
2.6
🐢 Slow drift over 34h 25m 2.71 → 2.43 → 2.60 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
2/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +6.1%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +4.1%
|
Steam Score:
21
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +13/45
Book synchronization: +8/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Athletic Club (swing 2.71 → 2.43 → 2.60) — net 6.1% but intraday chop is elevated. |
| Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo Primera Division · Thu 21:30 | Fuerte San Francisco | 4.75 |
5.0
since pub · 12h 3m |
↑ +5.3%
4.75
5.0
🐢 Slow drift over 12h 3m 6.00 → 4.75 → 5.00 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
3/7
Books moving same direction
Marathonbet
↑ +11.1%
1xBet
↑ +6.2%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +5.3%
|
Steam Score:
27
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +12/45
Book synchronization: +13/30
Books reacting: +6/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Fuerte San Francisco (swing 6.00 → 4.75 → 5.00) — net 5.3% but intraday chop is elevated. |
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