French Guyana vs Sint Maarten Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

French Guyana
Sep 29, 2026 - 21:00
1.36 1.24
Sint Maarten
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

French Guyana opened at -0.25 against Sint Maarten in the CONCACAF Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
French Guyana -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Sint Maarten than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sint Maarten +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+63.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.59 / 2.97 -0.25 1.60 / 2.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.69 / 2.92 -0.25 1.69 / 2.92 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.59 / 2.97 -0.25 1.60 / 2.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
xG 1.36 / 1.24 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.69
French Guyana @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
French Guyana @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.69 vs 2.19
Market price is 22.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.14 7.00
-1.25 2.91 6.60
-1.00 2.58 6.15
-0.75 2.05 4.20
-0.25 1.60 2.92
0 1.39 2.59
+0.25 1.31 2.08
+0.75 1.15 1.63
+1.00 1.06 1.45
+1.25 1.05 1.36
+1.50 1.04 1.27

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.00 6.80
-1.00 2.60 6.25
-0.75 2.15 4.15
-0.50 1.90 3.30
-0.25 1.68 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.15
+0.50 1.32 1.90
+0.75 1.22 1.68
+1.00 1.12 1.48
+1.25 1.10 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.14 7.00
-1.25 2.84 6.60
-1.00 2.58 6.15
-0.75 2.05 4.20
-0.25 1.60 2.92
0 1.39 2.59
+0.25 1.31 2.08
+0.75 1.15 1.63
+1.00 1.06 1.45
+1.25 1.05 1.33
+1.50 1.04 1.27

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.69 2.92
0 1.46 2.56
+0.25 1.37 2.11
Primary Bets
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