Correggese vs Varesina Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Correggese
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Varesina
Kick-off 13:30

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Correggese opened at 0 against Varesina in the Serie D - Girone D. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Correggese from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Correggese -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Varesina than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Varesina +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+51.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
13:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.91 / 2.46 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.46 -0.25 1.94 / 2.49 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.82 / 1.98 -0.25 2.00 / 2.68 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.93 / 2.46 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 6.50
-1.00 3.72 5.45
-0.75 2.70 3.58
-0.25 1.93 2.46
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.43 1.74
+0.75 1.21 1.36
+1.00 1.08 1.20
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.25
-1.25 3.90 5.90
-1.00 3.55 5.50
-0.75 2.75 3.80
-0.50 2.30 3.10
-0.25 2.00 2.68
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.45 1.80
+0.50 1.35 1.60
+0.75 1.25 1.42
+1.00 1.15 1.27
+1.25 1.13 1.24
+1.50 1.12 1.21

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 6.50
-1.00 3.72 5.45
-0.75 2.70 3.58
-0.25 1.91 2.46
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.43 1.72
+0.75 1.21 1.36
+1.00 1.08 1.20
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.21 2.83
-0.25 1.94 2.49
0 1.64 2.14
+0.25 1.46 1.80
+0.50 1.36 1.60
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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