Freienbach vs Baden Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Freienbach
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 1-2)
Baden
Kick-off 18:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Freienbach opened at 0 against Baden in the 1. Liga Classic - Group 3. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Freienbach 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Freienbach than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

Price advantage is below the lean threshold.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
14:53
Last Pre-Match
0
18:02
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.72 / 1.97 0 1.89 / 1.79 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.82 / 1.93 0 1.90 / 1.80 0 0
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 0
1xBet 0 1.72 / 1.97 0 1.89 / 1.79 0 0
Betano -0.25 1.91 / 1.82 -0.25 1.91 / 1.75 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.03 -0.25 1.92 / 1.85 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.40 7.70
-1.50 4.60 4.25
-1.25 3.88 3.88
-1.00 3.84 3.50
-0.75 2.88 2.69
-0.25 2.17 2.02
0 1.89 1.79
+0.25 1.64 1.59
+0.75 1.36 1.32
+1.00 1.22 1.18
+1.25 1.18 1.18
+1.50 1.15 1.13

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.02 1.80
0 1.95 1.85
+0.25 2.00 1.78

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.25 2.04
-0.50 2.13 2.06
-0.25 1.92 1.85
0 1.71 1.63
+0.25 1.52 1.47
+0.50 1.40 1.37
+0.75 1.41 1.32

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.91 1.75
+0.25 1.87 1.70

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.40 7.70
-1.50 4.60 4.25
-1.25 3.88 3.88
-1.00 3.84 3.50
-0.75 2.88 2.69
-0.25 2.14 2.02
0 1.89 1.79
+0.25 1.64 1.57
+0.75 1.36 1.32
+1.00 1.22 1.18
+1.25 1.18 1.18
+1.50 1.15 1.13

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.83 2.66
-0.50 2.39 2.27
-0.25 2.15 2.04
0 1.90 1.80
+0.25 1.67 1.60
+0.50 1.52 1.47
+0.75 1.38 1.34
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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