The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Freienbach at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Freienbach Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freienbach | 36.6% | 36.5% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Baden | 33.8% | 38.4% | -4.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Freienbach; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Freienbach 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Baden 33.8%
- xG · Freienbach 1.33 — Baden 1.27
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Freienbach 2.42 · Draw 3.52 · Baden 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Freienbach 36.5% · Draw 25.1% · Baden 38.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Freienbach 2.42 · Draw 3.52 · Baden 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Freienbach 36.5% · Draw 25.1% · Baden 38.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga Classic - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tuggen | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Baden | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | St. Gallen II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Thalwil | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Taverne | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Kosova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Dietikon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Collina d'Oro | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Winterthur II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Gossau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Mendrisio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Eschen / Mauren | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Widnau | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Locarno | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taverne | 8 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 14 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 | St. Gallen II | 8 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 4 | Baden | 7 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 8 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Kosova | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Dietikon | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mendrisio | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Freienbach | 7 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Winterthur II | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Eschen / Mauren | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Gossau | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Collina d'Oro | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Locarno | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Widnau | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 5 |
