Ilkeston Town vs Rylands Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ilkeston Town
Sep 29, 2026 - 18:45
1.28 1.32
Rylands
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ilkeston Town opened at -0.25 against Rylands in the Non League Premier - Northern. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ilkeston Town -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Rylands than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Rylands +0.25
@ 1.91
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+12.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.43 / 1.83 -0.25 2.33 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.37 / 1.93 -0.25 2.38 / 1.91 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.46 / 1.83 -0.25 2.35 / 1.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.15 / 1.71 -0.25 2.15 / 1.69 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.28 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.38
Ilkeston Town @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Ilkeston Town @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.38 vs 2.42
Market price is 1.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.80 7.40
-1.75 7.08 5.05
-1.50 5.40 3.98
-1.25 5.00 3.58
-1.00 4.60 3.20
-0.75 3.20 2.46
-0.25 2.35 1.85
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.77 1.49
+0.75 1.43 1.26
+1.00 1.26 1.13
+1.25 1.21 1.11
+1.50 1.17 1.09
+1.75 1.10 1.04

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.15 1.69
0 1.90 1.48
+0.25 1.64 1.36

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.10 5.05
-1.50 5.40 3.98
-1.25 5.00 3.58
-1.00 4.60 3.20
-0.75 3.20 2.46
-0.25 2.33 1.85
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.77 1.48
+0.75 1.43 1.26
+1.00 1.26 1.13
+1.25 1.21 1.10
+1.50 1.17 1.09
+1.75 1.10 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.66 2.12
-0.25 2.38 1.91
0 2.12 1.66
+0.25 1.85 1.51
+0.50 1.66 1.41
Primary Bets
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