Waldhof Mannheim vs Preußen Münster Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Waldhof Mannheim
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Preußen Münster
Kick-off 14:30 Stadium Carl-Benz-Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Waldhof Mannheim opened at -0.25 against Preußen Münster in the 3. Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.93
Waldhof Mannheim -0.93

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 2.09 / 1.11
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Waldhof Mannheim -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.68
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.68 AH points more toward Waldhof Mannheim than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Waldhof Mannheim -0.25
@ 1.85
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.68
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.50
Price Advantage
+23.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:57
Opening
-0.25
14:05
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:30
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 2.56 -0.25 1.66 / 2.78 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.84 / 2.75 -0.25 1.70 / 3.11 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 -0.25 1.80 / 2.68 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.61 / 2.13 -0.25 1.73 / 2.66 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.83 / 2.65 -0.25 1.85 / 2.65 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.63 / 2.23 -0.25 1.60 / 2.29 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.33 8.30
-1.50 3.42 6.30
-1.25 3.08 5.89
-1.00 2.74 5.45
-0.75 2.21 3.78
-0.25 1.73 2.66
0 1.50 2.34
+0.25 1.37 1.94
+0.75 1.19 1.53
+1.00 1.08 1.35
+1.25 1.07 1.28
+1.50 1.06 1.23
+1.75 1.02 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.25
-1.25 3.30 5.90
-1.00 3.00 5.50
-0.75 2.38 3.80
-0.50 2.08 3.10
-0.25 1.80 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 2.00
+0.50 1.35 1.72
+0.75 1.25 1.55
+1.00 1.15 1.38
+1.25 1.13 1.32
+1.50 1.12 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.60 2.29
0 1.40 2.05
+0.25 1.31 1.75

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.65
+0.25 1.47 1.93

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.10 8.70
-1.50 3.28 6.65
-1.25 2.92 6.25
-1.00 2.62 5.80
-0.75 2.14 3.98
-0.25 1.66 2.78
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.34 1.99
+0.75 1.17 1.57
+1.00 1.07 1.38
+1.25 1.06 1.31
+1.50 1.05 1.25

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.22 4.10
-0.50 1.94 3.51
-0.25 1.70 3.11
0 1.47 2.72
+0.25 1.37 2.19
+0.50 1.31 1.91
+0.75 1.24 1.69
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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