FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Ingolstadt 04
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Hoffenheim II
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Audi Sportpark

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Ingolstadt 04 opened at -0.25 against Hoffenheim II in the 3. Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.28
FC Ingolstadt 04 -0.28

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.75 / 1.45
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
FC Ingolstadt 04 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.03
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.03 AH points more toward FC Ingolstadt 04 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Hoffenheim II +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.03
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.03
Price Advantage
+52.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
-0.25
16:57
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:01
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.61 / 2.88 -0.25 1.69 / 2.66 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.68 / 3.06 -0.25 1.73 / 3.04 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.61 / 2.88 -0.25 1.70 / 2.66 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.91 / 2.47 -0.25 1.78 / 2.75 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.63 / 2.18 -0.25 1.55 / 2.24 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.00 10.00
-2.00 5.35 10.50
-1.75 3.94 7.50
-1.50 3.20 5.90
-1.25 2.92 5.50
-1.00 2.59 5.15
-0.75 2.15 3.72
-0.25 1.70 2.66
0 1.49 2.36
+0.25 1.37 1.97
+0.75 1.20 1.56
+1.00 1.10 1.39
+1.25 1.08 1.31
+1.50 1.07 1.26
+1.75 1.03 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.10 7.00
-1.25 2.75 6.60
-1.00 2.50 6.00
-0.75 2.10 4.25
-0.50 1.98 3.45
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.30 1.82
+0.75 1.21 1.70
+1.00 1.12 1.50
+1.25 1.11 1.42
+1.50 1.10 1.35

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.55 2.24
0 1.38 2.11
+0.25 1.33 1.80

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.78 2.75
+0.25 1.44 2.00

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.95 7.50
-1.50 3.20 5.90
-1.25 2.92 5.50
-1.00 2.59 5.15
-0.75 2.15 3.72
-0.25 1.69 2.66
0 1.49 2.36
+0.25 1.37 1.95
+0.75 1.20 1.56
+1.00 1.10 1.39
+1.25 1.08 1.31
+1.50 1.07 1.26
+1.75 1.03 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.23 3.95
-0.50 1.97 3.43
-0.25 1.73 3.04
0 1.50 2.65
+0.25 1.39 2.15
+0.50 1.32 1.88
+0.75 1.26 1.68
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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