ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

ST Mirren
Final Score
0 – 3
(HT 0-3)
Dundee Utd
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium The SMiSA Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

ST Mirren opened at -0.25 against Dundee Utd in the Premiership. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.33
ST Mirren -0.33

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.46 / 1.09
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
ST Mirren -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.08
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.08 AH points more toward ST Mirren than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Dundee Utd +0.25
@ 2.67
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.08
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.10
Price Advantage
+27.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:36
Opening
-0.25
13:47
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.40 -0.25 1.88 / 2.39 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.76 / 2.10 +0.25 1.52 / 1.94 — +0.25
Bet365 +0.25 1.50 / 1.85 0 1.72 / 2.08 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.96 / 2.40 -0.25 1.89 / 2.47 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.55 / 1.85 +0.25 1.60 / 1.78 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.37 -0.25 1.87 / 2.46 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.30 10.00
-1.75 4.95 8.55
-1.50 3.88 5.80
-1.25 3.50 5.35
-1.00 3.08 4.90
-0.75 2.44 3.44
-0.25 1.89 2.47
0 1.63 2.17
+0.25 1.44 1.84
+0.75 1.23 1.44
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.22
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.50
-1.25 3.80 5.25
-1.00 3.45 4.50
-0.75 2.68 3.45
-0.50 2.30 2.75
-0.25 2.05 2.42
0 1.72 2.08
+0.25 1.52 1.80
+0.50 1.42 1.60
+0.75 1.30 1.45
+1.00 1.19 1.30
+1.25 1.16 1.25
+1.50 1.15 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.46
0 1.62 2.12
+0.25 1.46 1.80

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.85 3.40
-0.50 2.40 2.75
-0.25 2.10 2.42
+0.25 1.60 1.78
+0.50 1.47 1.60
+0.75 1.34 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.15 7.40
-1.50 4.00 5.60
-1.25 3.58 5.15
-1.00 3.20 4.70
-0.75 2.50 3.35
-0.25 1.88 2.39
0 1.66 2.12
+0.25 1.47 1.77
+0.75 1.24 1.42
+1.00 1.12 1.26
+1.25 1.10 1.21
+1.50 1.08 1.17
+1.75 1.03 1.10

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.58 3.78
-0.50 2.22 3.02
-0.25 1.96 2.67
0 1.68 2.31
+0.25 1.52 1.94
+0.50 1.42 1.72
+0.75 1.30 1.55
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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