Predictions / Football / Scotland. Premiership / ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd

Prediction Audit: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ST Mirren ST Mirren
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.46
3 1.09
xG Accuracy: 40%
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd

The model missed the final outcome (Dundee Utd win 0–3).

The model had projected ST Mirren at 44.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ST Mirren Dundee Utd ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Dundee Utd higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dundee Utd -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ST Mirren 44.0% 41.4% +2.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 25.8% +3.6 pp Aligned
Dundee Utd 26.6% 32.8% -6.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Dundee Utd's win probability at 32.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 26.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Dundee Utd win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Dundee Utd. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.55) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned ST Mirren; match finished Dundee Utd

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ST Mirren by 6.2 percentage points (50.2% vs model 44.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ST Mirren 44.0% · Draw 29.4% · Dundee Utd 26.6%
    • xG · ST Mirren 1.46 — Dundee Utd 1.09
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ST Mirren 2.34 · Draw 3.75 · Dundee Utd 2.95
    • Implied 1X2 · ST Mirren 41.4% · Draw 25.8% · Dundee Utd 32.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · ST Mirren 2.34 · Draw 3.75 · Dundee Utd 2.95
    • Implied 1X2 · ST Mirren 41.4% · Draw 25.8% · Dundee Utd 32.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dundee Utd win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8680421

Closing Odds 2.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dundee Utd win · ST Mirren 0–3 Dundee Utd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premiership
  • Fixture: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 26.6%
  • xG (showing): ST Mirren 1.46 — Dundee Utd 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.55)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 47.4% · Implied: 38.3% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +24.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celtic 7 6 0 1 18
2 Rangers 7 5 1 1 16
3 Heart Of Midlothian 7 4 1 2 13
4 Dundee 7 3 1 3 10
5 ST Mirren 7 3 1 3 10
6 ST Johnstone 7 2 2 3 8
7 Aberdeen 7 2 2 3 8
8 Dundee Utd 7 2 2 3 8
9 Motherwell 7 2 2 3 8
10 Hibernian 7 2 1 4 7
11 Falkirk 7 1 3 3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 14 4 +10 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 14 8 +6 13
3 Dundee 7 9 7 +2 10
4 ST Johnstone 7 9 10 -1 8
5 Dundee Utd 7 9 11 -2 8
6 Motherwell 7 9 11 -2 8
7 Rangers 7 8 4 +4 16
8 ST Mirren 7 8 9 -1 10
9 Hibernian 7 8 11 -3 7
10 Aberdeen 7 7 8 -1 8
11 Falkirk 7 6 9 -3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 6 15 -9 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 11.1 1.9 +9.2 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 7.1 4.5 +2.6 13
3 Motherwell 7 7.2 4.8 +2.4 8
4 ST Mirren 7 6.2 4.7 +1.5 10
5 Rangers 7 5.3 3.8 +1.5 16
6 ST Johnstone 7 6.7 5.6 +1.1 8
7 Hibernian 7 7.8 7.3 +0.5 7
8 Dundee Utd 7 6.9 8.3 -1.4 8
9 Aberdeen 7 3.4 5.4 -2.0 8
10 Dundee 7 5.6 8.7 -3.1 10
11 Falkirk 7 1.7 5.3 -3.6 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 3.1 11.9 -8.8 5