Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Bnei Yehuda

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Bnei Yehuda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Kfar Saba Hapoel Kfar Saba
Sep 28, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Bnei Yehuda Bnei Yehuda

The model missed the final outcome (Bnei Yehuda win 1–2).

The model had projected Hapoel Kfar Saba at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hapoel Kfar Saba Bnei Yehuda ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bnei Yehuda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bnei Yehuda -25.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Kfar Saba 35.2% 17.8% +17.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.7% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Bnei Yehuda 35.2% 60.5% -25.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bnei Yehuda's win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 25.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Bnei Yehuda win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hapoel Kfar Saba by 25.4 percentage points (60.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Saba 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Bnei Yehuda 35.2%
    • xG · Hapoel Kfar Saba 1.30 — Bnei Yehuda 1.30
  2. Sep 28, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Kfar Saba 5.13 · Draw 4.22 · Bnei Yehuda 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Saba 17.8% · Draw 21.7% · Bnei Yehuda 60.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Kfar Saba 5.13 · Draw 4.22 · Bnei Yehuda 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Saba 17.8% · Draw 21.7% · Bnei Yehuda 60.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bnei Yehuda win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10250807

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bnei Yehuda win · Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–2 Bnei Yehuda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Bnei Yehuda
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Kfar Saba 1.3 — Bnei Yehuda 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.5% · Probability edge: +13.3 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 6 5 0 1 15
2 Bnei Yehuda 6 4 2 0 14
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 4 1 1 13
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 4 0 2 12
5 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 4 0 2 12
6 Hapoel Afula 6 3 1 2 10
7 Kiryat Yam SC 6 3 0 3 9
8 Maccabi Herzliya 6 2 2 2 8
9 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 2 2 2 8
10 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 2 2 2 8
11 Kafr Qasim 6 2 1 3 7
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 2 0 4 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 6 1 2 3 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 1 0 5 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 16 8 +8 12
3 Bnei Yehuda 6 15 5 +10 14
4 Ashdod 6 14 5 +9 15
5 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 12 7 +5 13
6 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 12 15 -3 8
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 11 9 +2 12
8 Hapoel Afula 6 11 10 +1 10
9 Kafr Qasim 6 9 7 +2 7
10 Ironi Modi'in 6 9 11 -2 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 8 16 -8 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 6 7 7 0 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 7 9 -2 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 6 6 0 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 5 14 -9 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 19 -19 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions