Waalwijk vs Emmen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Waalwijk
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
1.39 1.81
Emmen
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Waalwijk opened at -0.25 against Emmen in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.39
Waalwijk +0.39

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Waalwijk -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.64
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.64 AH points more toward Emmen than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Emmen +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.64
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.50
Price Advantage
+106.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 2.73 -0.25 1.66 / 2.77 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.74 / 2.91 -0.25 1.74 / 2.91 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.73 -0.25 1.70 / 2.77 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.39
xG 1.39 / 1.81 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.74
Waalwijk @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.99
Waalwijk @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.74 vs 2.99
Market price is 41.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.90 8.20
-1.50 3.14 6.25
-1.25 2.88 5.89
-1.00 2.56 5.45
-0.75 2.10 3.88
-0.25 1.70 2.77
0 1.48 2.49
+0.25 1.35 2.05
+0.75 1.18 1.59
+1.00 1.08 1.40
+1.25 1.07 1.32
+1.50 1.06 1.27
+1.75 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 2.75 6.80
-1.00 2.42 6.40
-0.75 2.08 4.40
-0.50 1.85 3.55
-0.25 1.65 3.10
0 1.42 2.75
+0.25 1.35 2.20
+0.50 1.27 1.95
+0.75 1.20 1.72
+1.00 1.12 1.52
+1.25 1.10 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.90 8.20
-1.50 3.14 6.25
-1.25 2.88 5.90
-1.00 2.56 5.45
-0.75 2.10 3.88
-0.25 1.66 2.77
0 1.48 2.49
+0.25 1.35 2.00
+0.75 1.18 1.59
+1.00 1.08 1.40
+1.25 1.07 1.32
+1.50 1.06 1.27
+1.75 1.02 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.98 3.29
-0.25 1.74 2.91
0 1.50 2.54
+0.25 1.39 2.08
+0.50 1.32 1.83
Primary Bets
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